April 27, 2021

Who should be the NBA Most Valuable Player? The answer is not simple. And the answer is subject to change. With most teams still having 10-12 games left on their regular season schedule, things could still change. Because we are curious we spent too much time digging into the facts. Being data informed is the responsible way to vote on matters such as the NBA Most Valuable Player award.

What factors should matter when considering MVP? The total regular season body of work is a good place to start. After a "total production" measurement, which usually leans towards offensive statistics, we believe the player's defensive value must also be measured. Finally, we ask, is his team winning or not? Our method ranks the current top five for MVP as... 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2. Nikola Jokic, 3. Stephen Curry, 4. Luka Doncic, 5. Zion Williamson. For the record, the Las Vegas odds for MVP have a top-five of... 1. Jokic, 2. Embiid, 3. Curry, 4. Giannis, 5. Harden.

Combine our method with the Vegas odds and we have seven realistic contenders for MVP. The chart below is for quick easy comparisons.

Player Points Rebs. Assists Steals Blocks 3-PT FGM DEFRTG Diff. Total Production Wins
Antetokounmpo 1452 580 306 60 65 55 3.3 1261 32
Jokic 1574 653 524 83 39 81 -1.3 1514 39
Curry 1657 297 308 62 7 273 -.3 1274 30
Doncic 1537 431 473 54 34 161 -.6 1207 32
Williamson 1484 401 199 49 36 9 .3 1245 25
Embiid 1229 455 129 41 58 48 .6 991 30
Harden 1060 336 457 50 29 117 -.9 954 29

Bigger Table (below)

Player 

team

Hoop Obsesssion Calculation (HOC)

Total Prod. Points

DEFRTG Diff.

Defrtg Points

Wins 

Win Points

Score

Giannis 

MIL

0.737

63

3.3

17.4

32

12.4

92.8

Jokic 

DEN

0.716

65

-1.3

3.4

39

14.4

82.8

Curry, Steph

GSW

0.705

64

-0.3

7.2

30

11

82.2

Doncic 

DAL

0.636

61

-0.6

6.2

32

12.2

79.4

Zion 

NOP

0.7

62

0.3

8.4

25

8.4

78.8

Randle 

NYK

0.487

56

0.6

9.4

33

12.8

78.2

Lillard

POR

0.588

60

-0.7

5.8

29

10.4

76.2

Kawhi 

LAC

0.628

53

0.1

8.2

32

12

73.2

Gobert

UTA

0.497

38

6

19.6

44

15

72.6

Fox 

SAC

0.545

57

-0.1

7.6

24

7.8

72.4

Embiid

PHI

0.754

52

0.6

9.2

30

10.8

72

Adebayo

MIA

0.539

47

1.8

14.4

27

9.4

70.8

Chris Paul

PHX

0.496

42

1.6

14

42

14.8

70.8

Tatum

BOS

0.506

51

0.5

9

30

10.6

70.6

Young, Trae 

ATL

0.57

54

-0.7

5.6

29

10.2

69.8

Beal 

WAS

0.624

59

-2.6

0.4

26

8.8

68.2

Irving 

BKN

0.625

50

-0.9

4.8

31

11.6

66.4

Booker

PHX

0.524

49

-1.6

2

41

14.6

65.6

Westbrook

WAS

0.485

41

3.1

16.8

23

7.4

65.2

Vucevic 

CHI

0.547

58

-3.2


21

6.8

64.8

LaVine 

CHI

0.581

55

-1.8

1.8

22

7.2

64

Butler

MIA

0.595

37

3.8

18

26

8.6

63.6

Ingram 

NOP

0.514

48

-0.6

6

25

8.2

62.2

J Brown 

BOS

0.51

44

0

8

28

10

62

George 

LAC

0.549

32

3.3

17

34

13

62

James, LeBron

LAL

0.622

34

3.3

17.2

28

9.8

61

Mitchell, D

UTA

0.535

45

-1.9

1.4

39

14.2

60.6

Harden 

BKN

0.612

46

-0.9

4.6

27

9.2

59.8

Middleton

MIL

0.473

40

-0.8

5.2

37

14

59.2

Sabonis 

IND

0.491

43

-0.4

6.8

24

7.6

57.4

Capela 

ATL

0.494

29

4.5

18.4

28

9.6

57

How we arrive at "total production". We multiplied minutes played by HOC. (What the heck is HOC?). ...After a lifetime of studying the NBA and various efficiency measurements, we tweaked (quite significantly) our trusted "EFR" rating into a new formula we call the Hoop Obsession Calculation (HOC). The formula is a per-minute measure of efficiency adjusted for what we believe really matters in a boxscore (for example, less emphasis on rebounding, more emphasis on shooting accuracy). This proprietary math is based on thousands of hours of basketball observation in a lifetime dedicated, in part, to studying what affects winning and losing.

Top 50 in HOC x Mins. Played (Total Production)

Player

Age

Tm

Total

HOC

Nikola Jokic

25

DEN

1514.5

0.716

Stephen Curry

32

GSW

1274.9

0.705

Giannis Antetokounmpo

26

MIL

1261.7

0.737

Zion Williamson

20

NOP

1245.4

0.687

Luka Doncic

21

DAL

1207.3

0.636

Damian Lillard

30

POR

1162.2

0.588

Bradley Beal

27

WAS

1130.5

0.624

Nikola Vucevic

30

TOT

1116.7

0.547

De'Aaron Fox

23

SAC

1109.4

0.545

Julius Randle

26

NYK

1097.2

0.487

Zach LaVine

25

CHI

1085.0

0.581

Trae Young

22

ATL

1054.6

0.570

Kawhi Leonard

29

LAC

993.0

0.628

Joel Embiid

26

PHI

991.9

0.754

Jayson Tatum

22

BOS

991.1

0.506

Kyrie Irving

28

BRK

991.0

0.625

Devin Booker

24

PHO

986.9

0.524

Brandon Ingram

23

NOP

977.4

0.514

Bam Adebayo

23

MIA

973.8

0.539

James Harden

31

TOT

954.0

0.612

Donovan Mitchell

24

UTA

947.2

0.535

Jaylen Brown

24

BOS

941.2

0.510

Domantas Sabonis

24

IND

929.8

0.491

Chris Paul

35

PHO

928.4

0.496

Russell Westbrook

32

WAS

915.8

0.485

DeMar DeRozan

31

SAS

912.8

0.538

Khris Middleton

29

MIL

912.3

0.473

Rudy Gobert

28

UTA

911.1

0.497

Jimmy Butler

31

MIA

886.2

0.595

Malcolm Brogdon

28

IND

872.4

0.462

Terry Rozier

26

CHO

871.1

0.449

LeBron James

36

LAL

863.1

0.622

Collin Sexton

22

CLE

853.7

0.479

Paul George

30

LAC

850.6

0.549

Deandre Ayton

22

PHO

846.7

0.460

Tobias Harris

28

PHI

843.8

0.500

Clint Capela

26

ATL

800.5

0.494

Norman Powell

27

TOT

792.8

0.434

Karl-Anthony Towns

25

MIN

778.5

0.582

Jamal Murray

23

DEN

773.2

0.454

Jerami Grant

26

DET

772.7

0.435

Jonas Valanciunas

28

MEM

772.3

0.539

Andrew Wiggins

25

GSW

769.3

0.382

Pascal Siakam

26

TOR

765.2

0.446

Harrison Barnes

28

SAC

761.7

0.366

John Collins

23

ATL

755.9

0.485

Ja Morant

21

MEM

751.7

0.458

Jrue Holiday

30

MIL

736.4

0.481

Michael Porter Jr.

22

DEN

735.8

0.473

As mentioned above, defense needs to be a part of the equation. We can see within each team, which players are above or below their team's DEFENSIVE RATING. We call this "defensive differential". This is a stat based on opponents scoring per 100 possessions while a given player is in the game. Because successful NBA defense is so tied to the entire five-man rotation, we think any individual defensive rating should be considered no more than 20% (one of five) of any equation. We also strongly feel that looking at individual DEFRTG's across different teams is fruitless. Certainly, every teammate of Rudy Gobert will have a better DEFRTG, than say, a team that plays Nemanja Bjelica as a Center.

Positive Defensive Differentials of those in Top 50 in Total Production.

Player 

team

DEFRTG Diff.

Gobert

UTA

6

Capela 

ATL

4.5

M Turner

IND

3.5

Giannis 

MIL

3.3

James, LeBron

LAL

3.3

George 

LAC

3.3

Westbrook

WAS

3.1

Anunoby

TOR

3.1

CJ Mc

POR

2.7

Durant 

BKN

2.5

Joe Harris

BKN

2.5

Harrell

LAL

2.2

Van Vleet

TOR

1.9

Adebayo

MIA

1.8

Valanciunas

MEM

1.7

CP 3

PHX

1.6

Jrue 

MIL

1.6

Barnes 

SAC

1.6

D Murray

SAS

1.5

Holmes 

SAC

1.4

Hayward

CHA

1.4

Boucher 

TOR

1.3

C Wood

HOU

1.3

Murray, J

DEN

1.2

Siakam

TOR

1.2

J Grant

DET

1

Brogdon 

IND

0.9

Young, Thad

CHI

0.8

Simmons, B

PHI

0.8

Kanter 

POR

0.8

Ibaka

LAC

0.8

White, Coby

CHI

0.8
Julius Randle NYK 0.6
Embiid PHI 0.6
Tatum BOS 0.5
T Harris PHI 0.5
John Collins ATL 0.5
Zion NOP 0.3
Kawhi LAC 0.1

Finally, using our totals we list the three All-NBA teams as we would vote for them today (as of 04/27/21).

All-NBA First Team: Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic.

All-NBA Second Team: Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Rudy Gobert.

All-NBA Third Team: Chris Paul, Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Joel Embiid.

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