The Hoop Obsession NBA Way Too Early Season Preview - By Bobby Gerould
August 20, 2024. By the standards of COSTCO, this preview is really not that early. We saw Christmas decorations on sale last week at our local warehouse super-store of choice. The NBA will come back to life three months before Santa hits your rooftop. The 25th of September is the first date for the Celtics and Nuggets to begin training camp. They are allowed to start early because of their participation in the Abu Dhabi games. The rest of the league's teams will tip-off their practices on October 1st.
The early preview, of course, comes with disclaimers. Team rosters will change before the season tips, so keep that in mind while reading this highly subjective (yet obsessive) gaze into the crystal ball.
We will go in inverse order from the 30th ranked team to the team we visualize as the NBA Champions, adding notes and facts as we go. You may notice that some Eastern Conference teams have higher projected win totals than Western teams that are ranked in front of them. This is due to how tough the West is this season.
Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are two reasons why the West is so good.
The Hoop Obsession Preseason Rankings
30. Charlotte Hornets - Charles Lee has a real chance to look like a miracle-worker. The new Head Coach of the Hornets is a well-respected 39 year-old man that was an assistant coach in Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Boston. He played professionally in Germany and his hard work and knowledge of the modern NBA game led him to his current position. Unfortunately, the Hornets roster is inefficient in too many areas, and downright awful defensively. The Hornets defensive rating last season was 119.2 (29th of 30). LaMelo Ball is gifted offensively. When healthy, Mark Williams has shown signs of being a good NBA pivot. Brandon Miller will enter his second year after making visible strides as his rookie campaign went on. The main problem with the Hornets as we see it is the almost certain lack of productivity from Josh Green, Grant Williams, Cody Martin, and rookie Tidjane Salaun. Projected wins: 17
29. Atlanta Hawks - How did we get here? The Hawks were in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. Last season they failed to reach the Playoffs, winning 36 games. They are a bad defensive team that lost one of their best two players. Dejounte Murray is off to New Orleans. That leaves Trae Young and Jalen Johnson as two good young players but it is not close to being enough. The Hawks have the worst second-five in the NBA by our projections. A bench of Trent Forrest, Garrison Matthews, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher (the 19 year-old, number one pick), and Onyeka Okongwu is simply not legitimate when compared to the rest of the league. Projected wins: 23
28. Detroit Pistons - The main-five for the Pistons is capable of keeping them in games. It's their next five that get them in trouble. New coach, J.B. Bickerstaff will hopefully try to maximize his young core of Jaden Ivey, Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren. However, Bickerstaff was guilty of doing the opposite in Cleveland, where he was relieved of his duties. He didn't play his Cavs stars enough minutes. The Pistons added three veteran players to try to speed up the process of winning. We like Tobias Harris. He should bring a professionalism that is good for his younger teammates to model. Tim Hardaway Jr. showed he is still capable of getting buckets. Ron Holland, the fifth pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is a wild card. Part of the Pistons issue as we see it is the drastic efficiency drop any time Isaiah Stewart plays the FIVE. That could be corrected by admitting Stewart has to be a FOUR. Projected wins: 27
We don't like "comps" but.... Ron Holland reminds us of, .....ah, nevermind. OK, a hint below.
27. Chicago Bulls - Reports of Lonzo Ball playing ball without pain are a step in the right direction but the Bulls lost DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Andre Drummond and that might mean this Bulls season is lost. Even with the addition of Jalen Smith, the Bulls main-five is small (Josh Giddey, Zach LaVine, Ball, Coby White). They re-upped with Patrick Williams who still hasn't shown what he might be capable of. At Hoop Obsession, we've seen enough of P. Williams and we would not have done that deal. Projected wins: 30
26. Brooklyn Nets - The Nets best players are Nic Claxton and Cam Thomas. They are both fine NBA players but pretty obviously, neither player is at a stage in their careers where they should be the main duo on a winning NBA team. Mikal Bridges is off to New York, and the Nets added Ziaire Williams. New coach Jordi Fernandez is tasked with getting Ben Simmons to contribute. We like DayRon Sharpe's game but he might not crack the top-ten in the rotation. Aside from some BIG scoring nights from Cam Thomas, Nets basketball might be a tough watch. Projected wins: 32
25. Utah Jazz - Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton are two really good players and the Jazz main-five is nothing to take lightly. That said, the Jazz absolutely stunk on defense in 2023-24. They ranked last in Defensive Rating, giving up 119.6 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz just aren't experienced enough or deep enough to contend yet. Their projected second five is the worst back-five defensive group in the NBA (likely two-rookies, Taylor Hendricks, Drew Eubanks and Collin Sexton). Projected wins: 20
24. Toronto Raptors - Another team with a good starting five, the Raptors will be a team to bet in first quarters! Potentially, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Kelly Oynyk, and Jakob Poeltl should get Toronto off to a strong start. As they head to the bench though, the drop-off is cliff-esque. Three historically efficiency-challenged players (Davion Mitchell, Gradey Dick, and Ocahi Agbaji) will hit the floor and scoring will be a struggle. The Raptors will hit training camp with six rookies (JaKobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, Ulrich Chomche, Branden Carlson, Jamison Battle). Projected wins: 37
HoopObsession endorses Immanuel Quickley.
23. Washington - The Wizards added some quality depth that should allow them to win more games than they have recently. Saadiq Bey, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas will try to bring some more adult thinking to perhaps the most individualistic locker room in the NBA. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole might look better with better teammates (what a concept!). The Wizards draft pick (second overall), Alex Sarr did not look comfortable at Summer League. He shot 19% FG (not a typo!). Sarr played in four games and blocked 2.5 shots per game. If the Wizards bring Sarr along slowly, and lean into their vets, they might beat up on the bad teams in the East and win way more games than the consensus thinks. Projected wins: 39
Timeout for a fun experiment:
I will list Player A and Player B. You try to guess who each is. Simply food for thought about perceptions versus numbers.
Player A, averages & percentages in 2023-24:
Mins. Points Rebounds Assists FG% 3-pt. FG % HOC Age Wingspan DEFRTG Differential 21.1 11.7 6.2 1.1 58.6 39.1 .618 25 7'1" +6.5 Player B: averages & percentages in 2023-24:
Mins. Points Rebounds Assists FG% 3-pt. FG % HOC Age Wingspan DEFRTG Differential 33.6 15.2 5.5 1.7 45.4 35.8 .416 24 6'11 +1 Answer will be given. Keep reading : ))
22. Portland Trailblazers - The additions of Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan should make the Blazers a tougher out this season. Scoot Henderson will have an opportunity to prove he is better than his rookie run where he made just 38% of his field goals. Donovan Clingan, their rookie BIG man, WILL make a difference on defense in the half-court. He eats defensive rebounds. The trio of Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and DeAndre Ayton will keep the Blazers close. It's probably just a little early in the game for Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson to be consistent winners. Projected wins: 24
Shaedon Sharpe is capable of a breakout season.
21. L.A. Clippers - The Clippers lost Paul George. They will try to exist on James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Harden will turn 35 years-old in a few days. Kawhi is 33. Beyond those two there just isn't much dynamism on the roster. Ivica Zubac is a solid Center. Norman Powell is a solid guard. New additions Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Mo Bamba can help the Clippers defensive depth. Can Jordan Miller sneak into the rotation? We think he could be a more aggressive upgrade to Nic Batum and Amir Coffey. Projected wins: 29
20. San Antonio Spurs - Victor Victor Victor. The hype is real. He is worth every bit of hyperbole. Victor Wembanyama is the kind of player that could make this prediction look silly. The Spurs added Chris Paul but he may serve as more of a bench player that mentors rookie Stephon Castle. Devin Vassell has been improving at a steady rate, and Malachi Flynn should give the Spurs some scoring punch from the bench. Harrison Barnes likely starts but the combination of Barnes and Jeremy Sochan could lead to too many low-scoring nights for the Spurs to win with regularity. Projected wins: 31
19. Golden State Warriors - Any team with Stephen Curry is going to have a chance to win on a given night. We also like Jonathan Kuminga but Steve Kerr has been stingy with minutes (just 26.3 per game last season). That said, part of the supporting cast that figure to play large roles just aren't elite in the way that Championship era Warriors players were. Buddy Hield, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green at age 34 are a far cry from pre-injury Klay Thompson and defensive superman Andre Iguodala. The Dubs did well in the Draft last year and Brandin Podziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis should only improve. DeAnthony Melton and Kyle Anderson are solid pros that can add depth. Projected wins: 35
18. New Orleans - The Pelicans made some significant changes with Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Larry Nance Jr., and Dyson Daniels all exiting. Dejounte Murray arrives and it appears that the Pels will be best suited to play Zion Williamson as a FIVE. Trey Murphy III continues his NBA ascent and C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram are really good players that should keep the Pelicans in most games. Ultimately, New Orleans bench bigs project to be rookie Yves Missi, and possibly Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. That lack of depth in the front court could be why the Pelicans take a dip in wins. Projected wins: 38
17. Houston Rockets - The Rockets have an exciting future. They finished as the tenth best team by Defensive Rating last season. Young core players that get it done include Alperan Sengun, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason (if healthy). Fred VanVleet is an excellent lead guard and Jalen Green continues to show promise. Perhaps Jabari Smith Jr. takes a jump forward this season. Our models don't appreciate Dillon Brooks. He finished 51st (of 68) in our HOC small forward ratings. Projected wins: 43
16. Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks descent to a middling team may become even more evident this season. The trouble lies in their Bermuda Triangle of inefficiency off the bench. Pat Connaughton, and Marjon Beauchamp will be joined by fellow 'low .300 HOC' guy Taurean Prince. Yikes! All the good done by Damian Lillard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo become moot when Doc Rivers goes to his trusted reserve veterans. We do like the Delon Wright addition but the Gary Trent Jr. add contributes yet another player who will likely see main-five minutes when they are more suited for a supporting actor gig off the bench. Projected wins: 43
Did you guess who the two players were in our Player A, Player B, quiz?
Player A = Marvin Bagley III
Player B = Keegan Murray
Look for part II with the top 15 rankings coming soon!
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