The Too Early Hoop Obsession NBA Season Preview - By Bobby Gerould
September 5, 2025.
2025–26 NBA Preview
Each offseason, as part of our effort to reacquaint ourselves with the league landscape, we dive into building spreadsheets and depth charts for the upcoming season. Without fail, a few intriguing story-lines and roster details emerge, and sharing those insights is the purpose of this too-early preview.
Of course, rosters remain fluid. A year ago at this time, for example, we noted the New York Knicks’ lack of size. Less than three weeks before the season tipped off, they addressed that concern by acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns (photo below). The move legitimized their lineup and helped set the stage for a season that delivered more successes than setbacks.
In this piece, you’ll notice we refer to “main five” and “second five.” This terminology reflects the way we analyze rosters. Traditional “starting five” designations often don’t align with reality. Many times, the players who open games aren’t the ones logging the most minutes over an 82-game season. By “main five,” we mean the group we project to play the highest total minutes on a roster.
It’s important to emphasize that this remains a too-early preview. There is still ample time for teams to rise or fall in our rankings as the offseason continues to unfold. We’ll begin at the bottom, working from the 30th-ranked team all the way up to the contenders for the 2025–26 NBA championship in this two-part series.
Teams 30 to 16.
30th - Washington Wizards.
Good Lord. As presently constituted, the Wizards have a chance to be historically awful. They play mostly super young, unproven prospects. Bub Carrington, the likely starting Point Guard will enter his second season at 20 years-old. KyShawn George is 21. Bilal Coulibaly is 21. Alex Sarr is 20. Tre Johnson is 19. AJ Johnson is 20. That kind of youth does not win many NBA games.
C.J. McCollum, and Khris Middleton will try to provide some veteran leadership but the lack of size and efficiency on the roster will be really difficult to overcome. The Wizards brought a fair share of their core to Las Vegas for Summer League and they couldn’t even win there. By our metrics, the Wizards have the worst main-five, AND the worst second-five in the NBA. They are way too small, with Marvin Bagley, at 235 lbs., being the heaviest player on the roster.
The Wizards, if they actually played their most ready players, could be competitive for a stretch in any game. We liked their move to get Cam Whitmore from Houston. We think Whitmore has the goods to be a legitimate scorer in the NBA. Bagley continues to be efficient although he is a FIVE-man in a four-man’s body. We think Tristan Vukcevic is a potential NBA rotation BIG but he is on a two-way deal, and he doesn’t figure to play much. We like Justin Champagnie (photo below). However, with Tre Johnson added to the roster as a rookie lottery pick, Champagnie’s playing time might be curtailed.
Vegas projects: 21.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 19 wins.
29th: Utah Jazz.
The Utah Jazz will look noticeably different this season. Veterans Collin Sexton, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson have departed, replaced by a blend of draft picks and proven role players, including Kyle Anderson and Jusuf Nurkic.
The organization has made it clear they are not entering a rebuild or tanking phase. Still, while the intention is to compete, the roster doesn’t appear ready to translate that into a significant number of wins.
The most pressing concern is defense, particularly from the second unit. By our metrics, the group of Walter Clayton Jr. (rookie), Brice Sensabaugh (photo below), Cody Williams, Kyle Filipowski, and Nurkic projects as the weakest second-five defensive unit in the league.
Utah’s youth movement is headlined by Ace Bailey, the No. 5 pick in this year’s draft. At just 19, Bailey’s talent is evident, but he likely needs more experience before he consistently impacts winning. Beyond him, three projected main-five players, Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Taylor Hendricks, are all 21 or younger. Paired with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, that level of inexperience makes it difficult to expect immediate success.
Markkanen’s trajectory is also worth noting. At 28, he may no longer project as a franchise centerpiece. In our Hoop Obsession Calculation rankings, he placed 22nd among qualified power forwards, more reflective of a lower-tier starter than a cornerstone star.
There are positives. George showed encouraging growth last season, while Sensabaugh has a scorer’s mentality that can energize the offense. Filipowski built on a solid rookie year with an impressive Summer League, and Oscar Tshiebwe continues to make the most of his opportunities, even if his two-way status limits his playing time.
Vegas projects: 18.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 19 wins.
28th: Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets figure to struggle. Youth is what it is, and the Nets just completed an NBA Draft where they had four first round picks. It seems possible that rookie Egor Demin will be running the show. He is nowhere near ready to be a starting NBA PG. The Nets main-five defense and their second-five efficiency both rank 29th by our metrics.
The big move for Brooklyn was trading Cam Johnson to Denver for Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 unprotected first round pick. MPJ certainly has talent but his performance varied wildly from game-to-game in Denver. Terance Mann also arrives in Brooklyn after a a short stint in Atlanta. Haywood Highsmith was acquired from Miami, and Ricky Council was added. Brooklyn finally resolved their Cam Thomas situation. The man penciled in as their starting two-guard, was signed to a six million dollar, one-year qualifying offer contract.
Where Brooklyn figures to really struggle is with low-efficiency players that are a part of their rotation. Fitting that description are: Demin, Nolan Traore (R), Noah Clowney, and Jalen Wilson.
Is there anything to like about the Nets? We are fans of Head Coach Jordi Fernandez, and BIG man Day’Ron Sharpe. Danny Wolf, a rookie from Michigan has a nice feel for team basketball, and we think Drake Powell, another rookie has the kind of upside that may one day pay off.
The reality, however, is that among all NBA teams, the Nets and the aforementioned Wizards are the two rosters we would most strongly consider rebuilding from the ground up.
Vegas projects: 20.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 22 wins.27th: Charlotte Hornets.
LaMelo Ball (photo below) is undeniably a superstar. His popularity was on full display in Las Vegas during Summer League, where fans flocked to him at every turn. On the court, his offensive brilliance is unquestioned, but for Charlotte to win consistently, he still has room to grow defensively. While there have been signs of progress on that end, he hasn’t yet reached the level needed to drive regular team success.
Despite having a relatively strong second unit, the Hornets may struggle to stack wins. Our projections place Charlotte’s main five at 28th in the league. Much of that hinges on Josh Green. If he ends up outside of the main-five, the Hornets could exceed expectations. But if Green plays heavy minutes, his inefficiency could be a drag on offensive consistency.
There were some offseason moves we liked. Collin Sexton joins Charlotte and should be a major contributor, though there’s a risk he ends up coming off the bench instead of playing starter-level minutes. The Hornets also brought in three promising rookies, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Kon Knueppel, and Liam McNeeley, all of whom impressed during Summer League, where Charlotte captured the championship.
Size remains a significant concern. Trading Mark Williams netted the Hornets two first-round picks, including the 2024 selection used on McNeeley and a protected 2029 pick. While that move helps the long-term outlook, it leaves the current roster undersized. With Miles Bridges as their biggest main-five player, Charlotte could struggle defensively against bigger lineups.
Kalkbrenner is the team’s lone traditional center, but as a rookie, it’s uncertain if he can claim a starting role immediately. Moussa Diabate provides depth but is more of a power forward than a true center. One major X-factor is Brandon Miller. Limited to just 27 games last season before undergoing wrist surgery in January, Miller has the talent to make a significant leap. If he takes that next step, the Hornets’ trajectory could improve considerably.
Vegas projects: 27.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 27 wins.26th: Phoenix Suns.
Kevin Durant is no longer on the Suns. In a trade, KD was shipped to Houston in return for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and the draft rights to Khaman Maluach. Phoenix also has a new coach in Jordan Ott.
Devin Booker (photo above) and Green will form a potent offensive backcourt. Likewise, they are large contributors to what we feel is the worst main-five defensive crew in the NBA. The Suns defense is likely to be very giving. Despite adding two “shot-blockers” in Mark Williams, and Khaman Maluach (R), the Suns could be in big trouble in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Williams’ defensive numbers were poor last season in Charlotte (-3.2 points per 100 possessions), suggesting his lateral movement may be more of an issue than many think. Similarly, Maluach’s length led to him being only slightly positive (0.4 pts.) in defensive differential at Duke.
Among positives for Phoenix, we really like Williams’ offensive efficiency. We dig Ryan Dunn’s defensive game. We loved the signing of Jared Butler as a value play. He is a guard we have been “in-on” for some time. We also like Rasheer Fleming who was added as round two’s first pick.
One of the questions for the Suns is, who plays the majority of Point Guard minutes? Booker is capable but I don’t think PG is his BEST position.
Vegas projects: 31.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 28 wins.25th: Portland Trailblazers.
Damian Lillard is back on Portland’s roster, but he is not expected to play this season as he recovers from Achilles surgery.
The Blazers also moved on from Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton, reshaping the core of the team. New arrivals include veteran guard Jrue Holiday and first-round pick Hansen Yang. Holiday’s role will be closely watched. He could serve primarily as a mentor and backup to Scoot Henderson, or, as the team’s highest-paid player, potentially reclaim a starting spot.
One of Portland’s brightest building blocks is forward Deni Avdija, who averaged 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists last season while shooting 36.5% from three. Shaedon Sharpe continues to develop as well, raising his scoring output each year. Entering his fourth season, Sharpe looks poised to become a 20-point-per-game scorer after averaging 18.5 in 2024–25.
The team’s outlook could swing depending on Jerami Grant’s impact. His minus 6.1 net rating last season is hard to look past. That is a BIG negative number. For the Blazers, only Donovan Clingan and Matisse Thybulle posted positive net ratings among rotation players.
Robert Williams remains one of the league’s most efficient big men when healthy, but durability has been a major issue. He appeared in just 20 games last season and has played only 61 of a possible 246 games (24%) over the past three years.
Vegas projects: 33.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 31 wins.24th: New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans offense can play competitively with just about any team in the NBA. Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson all play efficiently. Poole is expected to run the show in New Orleans as DeJounte Murray continues to rehabilitate an Achilles injury suffered January 31st. Reports say Murray’s recovery is going well, lending hope that he may get to play about half of the season in 2025-26.
We anticipate the Pels main-five being Poole, Murphy, Herb Jones, Williamson, and Yves Missi. CJ McCollum is now in a Wizards uniform.
The Pelicans defense has to improve before anyone takes them as a threat to win Playoffs games. New Orleans ranked 29th in team defensive rating in 2024-25. Kevon Looney should help the second-five defense. Saddiq Bey, returning to the NBA after an ACL tear in March 2024, is a solid veteran player as well.
The NBA Draft yielded Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen and Micah Peavy. How much any of the trio will play in their rookie year in unknown but Willie Green, the Pels Head Coach, played Missi big minutes in his rookie season so it is possible Fears, Peavy and Queen are all in the mix.
Las Vegas projects: 29.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 32 wins.
23rd: Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls still need to finalize a deal with free agent Josh Giddey, but otherwise, not much has changed in Chicago. Lonzo Ball is gone, while Isaac Okoro arrives from Cleveland. Despite making the playoffs only once in the past five seasons, the Bulls appear set to continue with Nikola Vucevic at center, a role we’ve long felt is out of position. With Vucevic anchoring the defense, Chicago’s overall defensive ceiling remains limited by NBA standards.
Offensively, the presence of Patrick Williams in the rotation has also contributed to inconsistent efficiency, making it difficult for the Bulls to generate a true advantage.
There are, however, reasons for optimism. Matas Buzelis (photo above) showed strong growth late in his rookie campaign and should build on that momentum in year two. The 20-year-old, taken 11th in the 2024 NBA Draft, offers rare guard skills at 6’10”. Joining him is 2025 lottery pick Noa Essengue, selected 12th overall. At just 18 years old, Essengue brings elite length (7’1” wingspan) and intriguing upside as a versatile wing.
Stylistically, Chicago plays at a fast pace with a clear emphasis on transition defense. That approach comes at a cost, as they sacrifice offensive rebounding opportunities. Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in offensive rebounding percentage, a weakness that continues to limit their efficiency.
Vegas projects: 31.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 37 wins.22nd: Miami Heat.
The Heat lack a dynamic high-efficiency player. Their main-five and second-five really suffer because of this. Norman Powell will look to inject some scoring punch to the Heat lineup that has only Tyler Herro as a bona fide bucket-getter. The Herro / Powell tandem figures to be joined by Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and Bam Adebayo.
Heat mainstay Duncan Robinson is no longer in Miami. Haywood Highsmith is gone as well. Simone Fontecchio joins Powell as new veteran players. Kasparas Jakucionis was added on Draft day.
We expect 2024-25 rookies Pelle Larsson and Kel’el Ware (photo above) to be rotation players this season. Nikola Jovic is now 22 years-old. We remain high on his NBA future.
Some of the net ratings for Heat players are troubling. Jaime Jaquez Jr. was a minus 6.0 in 2024-25. He was heavy last Summer and the extra bulk did not work well. In the 17 games Wiggins played for the Heat, he had a net rating of minus 3.6.
Vegas projects: 38.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 35 wins.
21st: Philadelphia 76’ers.
Las Vegas does not think the Sixers will be as bad we think they might be. Last season, the injury riddled Sixers went 24-58. YIKES!
Their core of Tyrese Maxey (photo below), Paul George, and Joel Embiid can compete with anyone when they are healthy. However, many of the rotational pieces are still young and inexperienced. VJ Edgecombe was the third pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The 20 year-old brings defensive ability and top-tier athleticism to the Sixers. Jared McCain had his rookie season cut short after playing 23 games. Justin Edwards is just 21 years old.
Alongside their younger, less experienced players, the Sixers also feature veterans whose roles may no longer align with the team’s long-term direction. Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, and Kyle Lowry have all had accomplished careers, but reallocating their minutes to younger players could better serve Philadelphia’s future.
Quentin Grimes is not yet signed but we have him penciled in as a part of Philly’s main five. Kelly Oubre joins Grimes, Maxey, George, and Embiid in that crew. We liked three of the Sixers off-season moves: drafting Johni Broome, signing Trenton Watford, and getting Jabari Walker on a two-way contract.
Vegas projects: 42.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 36 wins.20th: Sacramento Kings
The Kings enter the season with a veteran-heavy roster that should be competitive on any given night. Head Coach Doug Christie did well last season after stepping in for Mike Brown, and his projected main-five now features Dennis Schroder (a free-agent signing), Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, and Domas Sabonis.
LaVine brings dynamic scoring in every way imaginable, but his defense was problematic in 32 games with the Kings, as reflected in a minus-3.8 net rating. If Christie can coach LaVine into being at least a neutral defender, Sacramento could outperform expectations.
DeRozan is elite at creating buckets in crunch time, but his reliance on mid-range shots limits Sacramento’s ceiling. The league’s top contenders generally thrive on three-point volume, while the Kings finished 24th in attempts and 19th in percentage from beyond the arc last season.
We STILL think Domas Sabonis (photo above) should be and could be playing the FOUR spot. While highly skilled, and uncommonly rugged, Sabonis remains limited as a defensive center. Sacramento ranked 25th in blocked shots per game and 22nd in defensive rating, numbers that reflect the lack of rim protection. A shift to power forward could unlock better team defense, but only if paired with a true starting-caliber NBA center, a scenario that doesn’t appear likely as the roster is presently constructed.
The second unit should include Keon Ellis, Malik Monk, rookie Nique Clifford, Isaac Jones, and rookie Maxime Raynaud. We were high on Sacramento’s draft, as both Clifford and Raynaud look like players capable of contributing rotation minutes right away. The Kings also added veteran depth in Drew Eubanks and Dario Saric, joining Doug McDermott in the back end of the roster. While experienced, those spots might ultimately be better served by younger players with developmental upside.
Las Vegas projects: 34.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 36 wins19th: Minnesota Timberwolves
The T-Wolves made the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year, losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games. They won 49 games last season. Anthony Edwards (photo below) is the obvious main-man in Minnesota. He averaged 27 points per game but Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid give the Wolves a trio of bigs that have a consistent advantage with their own mix of defense (Gobert), scoring and rebounding (Randle), and athleticism (Reid).
The core T-Wolves remain but Nickeil Alexander-Walker will play for the Atlanta Hawks this season. Two deeper bench guys, Josh Minott and Luka Garza will ball in Boston.
The Wolves could really benefit from having a proven dynamic play-maker next to Ant-Man. Mike Conley is now 38 years-old. He and Donte DiVincenzo rate among the least efficient Point Guards that get major minutes. Rob Dillingham should be expected to play more after a rookie season that saw him only get 10.5 minutes per game in 49 games.
The Wolves added Joan Beringer on Draft day with the 17th pick in the first round. He is a raw 18 year-old talent that stands 6’11” with a 7’5” wingspan.
Despite very little change. my models do not like the Wolves. They rank 21st in main-five efficiency, and their bench ranks 26th. Are they better than 19th? Probably. But we doubt they are as good as what Vegas is projecting due to other teams getting significantly better while the Wolves Point Guards continue to depreciate.
Vegas projects: 49.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 40 wins.18th: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers enter this season without Tyrese Haliburton, who is recovering from Achilles surgery, and without Myles Turner, who departed in free agency. That combination leaves Indiana undersized by NBA standards and forces some difficult lineup decisions. Our projection for the five players likely to log the most minutes? Andrew Nembhard, Ben Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Obi Toppin.
Toppin could remain in a bench role, but for that to happen, Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff, or James Wiseman would need to play larger roles than they ever have before. Indiana’s projected second-five consists of T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Jackson, and Huff. Rookie Kam Jones, an early second-round pick, could carve out rotation minutes, while Johnny Furphy may also be ready for an expanded role in his second season.
Outside of Siakam (photo above), one strength for the Pacers is their depth, which extends all the way to their two-way contracts. Quinton Jackson continues to stand out as a player we’re high on, and the team’s second-round pick, Taelon Peter, is an intriguing sleeper thanks to his versatile skill set.
The Pacers reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals last season, but replicating that success will be far more difficult without Haliburton, ranked fourth among NBA point guards in our HOC system. His 5.61-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio was the engine of Indiana’s offense, and replacing that level of play making will be a steep challenge.
Las Vegas projects: 37.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 40 wins.17th: Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum, the Celtics best player is expected to miss the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. The Celtics will play with pride but missing a superstar can send any squad into a spiral. We don’t expect Boston to stink by any means but we have a hard time envisioning them being better than .500.
Players that exited Boston included Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet. The loss of three BIGs could be difficult to overcome. Chris Boucher comes to Boston from Toronto. Anfernee Simons will bring his scoring prowess from Portland. One move we really like by the Celtics was snaring Josh Minott who is ready for a rotational role in the NBA after being underutilized in Minnesota.
The Celtics projected main five of Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Simons, Jaylen Brown and Sam Hauser is really small by NBA standards. Boucher may play more than Hauser but Boucher has not averaged more than 20 minutes per game in the last three seasons.
Vegas projects: 42.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 41 wins.16th: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks continue to defend at a high level, but their offensive flow, particularly with the second unit, leaves room for improvement. There are several lineup possibilities, though the projected main five could feature newcomer Cole Anthony, Taurean Prince, Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Myles Turner. Turner’s addition in free agency was somewhat unexpected, but he represents a clear upgrade from Brook Lopez, who at 37 is no longer the player he once was. Pairing Antetokounmpo with Turner should give Milwaukee more defensive flexibility, particularly in switching schemes.
One area of concern is the balance of minutes. Taurean Prince’s efficiency has been inconsistent, while Bobby Portis, despite his positive production, averaged just 25.4 minutes per game, only seventh most on the roster. That distribution raises questions about how the rotation is being managed.
The departures of Khris Middleton and Damian Lillard mark a new chapter. Following Lillard’s Achilles injury, the Bucks made the decision to waive him, reshaping the back-court in the process.
From our perspective, Giannis may now be best utilized at center. At 30, his physicality and interior dominance outweigh the need to stretch the floor, especially after shooting just 22.2% from three last season.
The second unit is expected to include Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., A.J. Green, Portis, and Jericho Sims, with Gary Harris also a possible contributor after five seasons in Orlando. His experience could add depth, though consistency will be key.
Overall, the Bucks have a solid foundation but still face challenges in roster construction and rotation choices. With some adjustments, they could maximize both efficiency and depth around their superstar core.
Las Vegas projects: 42.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 42 wins.
Look for part 2 of the Too-Early NBA Preview soon!
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