2024-25 NBA preview.

The Hoop Obsession NBA Way Too Early Season Preview (part II) - By Bobby Gerould

August 28, 2024. In part one, we started with the 30th ranked team and counted down to the 16th best. Part two of our Way Too Early NBA Preview reveals teams 15 to the team we visualize as the NBA Champions. *You may notice that some Eastern Conference teams have higher projected win totals than Western teams that are ranked in front of them. This is due to how tough the West is this season.

The NBA will come back to life on the 25th of September, the first date for the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets to begin training camp. They are allowed to start early because of their participation in the Abu Dhabi games. The rest of the league's teams will tip-off their practices on October 1st.

The early preview, of course, comes with disclaimers. Team rosters will change before the season tips, so keep that in mind while reading this highly subjective (but well-researched) gaze into the crystal ball.

DeAaron Fox and the Kings with DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk are going to score score score.

The Hoop Obsession Preseason Rankings

15. Orlando Magic - Orlando has Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as a young core. Jonathan Isaac and Moe Wagner are about as a good of a supporting front court as you can find in the NBA. Solid contributions come from Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., and Jalen Suggs. The rest of the crew is still young and they have not reached prime-time. The Magic have been lauded for adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on a reported three-year $66 million contract. Our analytic models do not see it as a positive for Orlando. Time will tell. KCP ranked 77th (of 94) in our Hoop Obsession shooting guard ratings. Projected wins: 41

14. New York Knicks - Jalen Brunson is amazing. He will be joined by the ultra tough Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo who all played at Villanova. The loss of Isaiah Hartenstein leaves the Knicks with Mitchell Robinson as the only likely true Center on the roster. Perhaps they will make a move to address this. It seems that Julius Randle will play a bunch of FIVE. Las Vegas lists the Knicks as the team with the fourth best odds to win the NBA Championship. We could certainly be wrong but we don't think the Knicks are BIG enough and we are concerned about their lack of a scorer beyond Brunson and Randle. While the noise about the "Nova Knicks" is LOUD, we just don't see this team living up to expectations unless they somehow land a Center that Tom Thibodeau trusts. Projected wins: 44

13. Miami Heat - Not much changed in Miami. The addition of Alec Burks should give the Heat a better chance of providing enough offense when Erik Spoelstra goes to his bench. The Heat finished with the fifth best Defensive Rating last season anchored by Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Jaime Jaquez will enter his sophomore NBA season looking to expand his contributions following a fantastic rookie year. The Heat's draft choice, Kel'el Ware played well in Summer League and it will be interesting to see if the 15th overall pick in round one can crack the rotation the way Jaquez did last season. Projected wins: 46

12. Cleveland Cavaliers - Kenny Atkinson takes over as the new Head Coach in Cleveland. The Cavs have significant talent on their roster, led by Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Atkinson can probably make the Cavs better by simply playing that aforementioned trio more minutes than former coach J.B. Bickerstaff did. Cleveland has one glaring weakness, their lack of efficiency in their reserve front-court. Tristan Thompson played 549 minutes last season. He was ranked 65th of 77 Centers in HOC. Projected wins: 49

Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs welcome a new coach for 2024-25.

11. Indiana Pacers - Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner are supported by the best bench point guard in the NBA, T.J. McConnell. This season, they lose Jalen Smith but that could and should open up more playing time for Obi Toppin and Isaiah Jackson who are both historically efficient. James Wiseman was added to the roster, and how Jarace Walker progresses in his second NBA season could be a key factor in the Pacers ceiling. Even with the 24th rated defense last season, the Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Projected wins: 52

10. Los Angeles Lakers - Gold Medal winners LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to headline the Lakers. D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves provide above average help offensively. They added some scoring punch in 17th overall pick Dalton Knecht of Tennessee. The Lakers will bring back a similar roster to last season but they should be more efficient now that Taurean Prince is gone. Rui Hachimura figures to play more minutes which should make the Lakers better. The Lake Show's biggest weakness is inefficiency when they go with reserves like Cam Reddish or Max Christie. Can LeBron and A.D. stay healthy? Projected wins: 46

9. Sacramento Kings - DeMar DeRozan should add to an already potent Kings offense that runs through the criminally underrated Domas Sabonis. The return of Malik Monk was crucial in a good off-season for the Kings. The prospects of any team stopping De'Aaron Fox and DeRozan in crunch-time seem slim. Keegan Murray enters his third NBA season with hopes he can have more scoring outbursts like his 47-point performance in December 2023. If the Kings defense can hold it's own, Sacramento figures to simply outscore most opponents. The Kings reserves should be solid defensively. The addition of Jordan McLaughlin, paired with Keon Ellis projects to be very good. Alex Len was excellent defensively for Sacramento last season, giving them some semblance of rim protection. Projected wins: 47

8. Minnesota Timberwolves - The T-Wolves continue to play a little bit differently than the rest of the NBA teams. Their "two-BIG" approach of playing Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert together has been more successful than not. In 2024-25, Minnesota will try to take another step forward with Anthony Edwards leading the way. While Jaden McDaniels is an unquestioned defensive star, he is a good example of an inefficient offensive player that may actually be holding back a team that already has an anchor on D, in Gobert. To try and beef up their scoring output, the T-Wolves added two bucket getters in the off-season. Draft picks Rob Dillingham, and Terrence Shannon both play very fast and are both capable of really lighting up the scoreboard. Projected wins: 48

Luka Doncic and the Mavs made it to the NBA Finals in 2024.

7. Phoenix Suns - We believe a real Point Guard can make a world of difference. The Suns went out and obtained two of them to help Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Tyus Jones should start and Monte Morris should lead the bench crew for Phoenix. Last season, the Suns were a poor fourth quarter team. They had natural born scorers trying to run their team and it manifested bad shot-selection where the ball didn't change sides enough. Tyus Jones will have the Suns organized and as such their efficiency will rise. The weakness for Phoenix is their mid-tier second five. Mason Plumlee will provide some size the Suns didn't previously have off the bench. How much playing time rookie Ryan Dunn gets will be interesting to see. He is a defensive wizard with offensive deficiencies. Projected wins: 51

6. Memphis Grizzlies - Forget last season. The Grizzlies set an NBA record by using 33 players in 2023-24. They used 51 different starting lineups and they had players miss a total of 578 games due to injuries, also an NBA record (credit Memphis Commercial Appeal). Looking forward, Ja Morant will be back. By our metrics, Ja is a top-five NBA Point Guard. A main-five of Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and rookie Zach Edey projects to be excellent on both ends. Second year pro GG Jackson showed signs of being a 2023 Draft steal. Brandon Clarke, an important role player, only played six games last season after returning from a torn Achilles tendon (March 3, 2023). We also have strong faith in Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins. He overhauled his entire staff, adding six new assistants for this season. Projected wins: 52

5. Philadelphia 76'ers - Paul George should make the Sixers a better team. And they were already good. Anchored by Joel Embiid, and the ever-improving Tyrese Maxey, Philly did not just stand pat. They changed virtually the entire supporting cast. Tobias Harris is out. He is now a Detroit Piston. Along with PG13, the Sixers will welcome Caleb Martin, rookies Jared McCain (16th pick) and Adem Bona (41st pick), plus veterans Guerschon Yabusele, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Kyle Lowry. Can Embiid stay healthy enough to lead the Sixers to the promised land? They should continue to be close. Projected wins: 55

4. Denver Nuggets - Nikola Jokic makes everything possible but he, like every superstar, needs help. As previously mentioned, our metrics think the Nuggets will be improved by the loss of the inefficient Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The addition of Russell Westbrook should inject energy on both ends even if it costs some outside shooting. Denver fans will hope that Jamal Murray rebounds from a poor performance at the Paris Olympics. Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. figure to see teammate Christian Braun play a larger role. Further additions in Denver include Dario Saric, and rookies Trey Alexander and P.J. Hall. Projected wins: 54

As long as Nikola Jokic is playing, the Nuggets will have a chance to win.

3. Dallas Mavericks - The Mavs made an adjustment mid-season in 2023-24 and proved that a relatively minor tweak can yield major positive results. Kyrie Irving played outstanding basketball last season, almost totally erasing any questions pundits had about his ability to be a good teammate. Luka Doncic continued to perform as a NBA MVP contender but it took shipping off Grant Williams, and acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford to turn the Mavs into the Western Conference Champions. This season, Dallas added Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall who will both add toughness and experience. The Mavs lost high-flyer and important role player Derrick Jones Jr. (to Clippers). Projected wins: 57

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - OKC added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to a 57-win team that is clearly ascending. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate NBA MVP candidate and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are a top tier "next two". Hartenstein should help the Thunder be a better rebounding team. They ranked 27th last season in rebounds per game. Can the Thunder win the NBA Championship? Maybe. The Celtics are proud champions and it is rare for a team like the Thunder to skip a step, going from Conference semi-finalists to World Champs. If the Thunder have any weakness, it is a bit of a lack of scoring punch off the bench. That said, we like the moves they made in the off-season and we think they are the best in the West. Projected wins: 62

1. Boston Celtics - The Celtics won it all in 2024. Rightfully so, not much figures to change in Boston. Aside from adding draft pick Baylor Scheierman, the Celtics will run it back with their fantastic core. Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis form a Championship level main-five. Their next-five is also top-tier. Payton Pritchard and his timely baskets blend perfectly with Sam Hauser's deep shooting accuracy. Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Xavier Tillman provide strength when certain match-ups call for more of it. Boston ranked second in points per game (120.6) and showed the importance of taking care of the ball by having the least amount of turnovers per game (11.9). The Celtics, although perceived as a relatively "small" team, finished second in rebounds per game (46.3). Not fouling was a huge part of Boston's winning recipe as well. They were second in the NBA in least fouls per game. We see the Celtics as the best in the NBA. Projected wins: 60

The real games begin Tuesday, October 24th. We can't wait!

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