The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#10 — Philadelphia 76ers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 48-34
Vegas Over/Under: 50.5 winsThe strength of the Philadelphia 76ers is very clearly at the top of the roster. Our projected main-five is Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Joel Embiid (photo below), and from an offensive-efficiency standpoint, we think that group has a legitimate argument as the best main-five in the NBA.
There is just an enormous amount of scoring, playmaking and experience packed into those five spots. Maxey is already one of the better offensive guards in the league. Brown gives Philadelphia another proven scorer who can attack from the wing. LeBron, even at 41, remains one of the smartest and most productive offensive players in basketball. Edgecombe is only entering his second season, but the talent is obvious. And then there is Embiid, who is still one of the most dominant offensive centers in the sport when he is actually on the floor. Philadelphia's official roster now includes all five, with Brown arriving from Boston and LeBron signing in July.
The biggest question, of course, is Embiid's availability. He played only 38 games last season, averaging 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 31.6 minutes. That followed years of recurring knee issues and workload management, so at this point it would be irresponsible to project a full season and move on. If Philadelphia gets something close to 60-plus games from Embiid and he is healthy enough to play major minutes late in the season, the entire outlook changes. If he once again misses half the year, this ranking becomes much harder to justify.
That is really the tension with the Sixers. On paper, the main-five is ridiculous. In practice, one of the five most important players is also one of the hardest stars in the league to project for availability. We are still willing to put Philadelphia in the top ten because the upside is so high, but Embiid's health is the single biggest variable in our 48-win forecast.
Defensively, we see the main-five as closer to the middle of the league, maybe a little below average overall. The offensive ceiling is what makes the lineup special.
Edgecombe is particularly interesting because he is still just 21 and already showed as a rookie that he belongs in high-level NBA games. He earned All-Rookie honors and had several strong postseason performances, including a 23-point game against Boston in which he made five three-pointers. We still expect some inconsistency because he is a second-year player, but he does not look like someone Philadelphia has to hide while waiting for development.
The concern begins when we get to the second-five. Our projected group is Anfernee Simons, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dominick Barlow, Dean Wade and Adem Bona. Defensively, we see that group as fairly middle-of-the-road. Offensively, though, we are not excited about the efficiency.
Simons can score, but we see him as more average from an efficiency standpoint than truly efficient. Caldwell-Pope has had a tremendous career as a complementary player, but his efficiency has never been a strong suit. Barlow is useful but not especially efficient. Wade can defend and space the floor some, but his total offensive production does not move the needle much for us. Bona brings energy and athleticism, but for a center, his efficiency is not especially impressive.
So while Philadelphia may have the best main-five offense in the league, we think there is a real drop when the second-five takes over.
The position we feel least certain about is Barlow's spot. Labaron Philon, Philadelphia's rookie guard, could very easily work his way into the main-ten. The Sixers also have Justin Edwards, Jabari Walker, Caleb Love, Rayan Rupert and Ariel Hukporti available as deeper rotation possibilities. None of them is someone we are automatically penciling into a major role, but there is enough competition there that our second-five could look different by midseason.
Philon may be the most interesting of those possibilities because he offers another creator and some upside at a spot where the second unit could use more offensive juice. If he is better than expected right away, Barlow is probably the player most vulnerable to being pushed out of our projected top ten. Edwards is another player we would not dismiss. He is still young, has NBA size on the wing and could absolutely earn more minutes if the Sixers need additional two-way play.
The deeper frontcourt is interesting too. Hukporti gives them another true center behind Embiid and Bona, which matters because of Embiid's history. Jabari Walker gives them another physical forward option. The roster has bodies. The question is not whether Philadelphia has enough players; it is whether enough of the players outside the top five can produce efficiently enough to keep the team humming when the stars sit.
That is why we are a little below Vegas despite liking the Sixers so much.
Philadelphia went 45-37 last season. Adding LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to a group that already includes Maxey, Edgecombe and Embiid raises the ceiling dramatically. But there are also obvious reasons not to simply add seven or eight wins and call it a day. Embiid played fewer than half the games last season. LeBron is 41. The second-five offense worries us. And in an Eastern Conference where several teams are very close, a few missed games by a star or a few inefficient bench stretches can matter a lot.
If Embiid plays 65 games and looks like himself, 48 wins could end up being conservative. If he plays 38 again, it may look aggressive.
Vegas has Philadelphia at 50.5 wins.
We have the Sixers at 48.
That puts Philadelphia at No. 10 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
