The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#18 — Phoenix Suns
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 37-45
Vegas Over/Under: 38.5 winsThe Phoenix Suns are one of those teams where we can see a path to being pretty good, but we also have a hard time identifying the player who elevates them beyond that. Devin Booker is unquestionably a star. We just do not view him as a true NBA superstar, and that distinction matters when trying to project which teams can consistently separate themselves over an 82-game season.
Our projected main-five is Collin Gillespie, Jalen Green, Booker, Dillon Brooks and newly acquired Miles Bridges. That is a talented, athletic group with plenty of scoring, but it is also very small. Phoenix may ultimately start a true center, but when we talk about the main-five, we are projecting the five players most likely to accumulate the most meaningful minutes over the course of the season. Given Mark Williams' injury history, we are not ready to assume he will finish among the Suns' top five in total minutes.
Green is an important part of this projection because Phoenix barely got a full look at him last season. He battled recurring hamstring problems throughout 2025-26 after arriving in the Kevin Durant trade, and the injuries repeatedly interrupted his availability and rhythm. Even while dealing with that, Green still averaged around 18 points per game, but his overall efficiency remained inconsistent. A healthier season gives Phoenix another legitimate downhill scorer and transition threat, but Green is also one of the players who has to become more efficient if the Suns are going to outperform our projection.
Booker remains the stabilizing force. He can create shots, get to his spots and function as either a lead scorer or secondary playmaker. Brooks gives Phoenix toughness and defensive edge, and Bridges adds another accomplished scorer who averaged 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists for Charlotte last season. Phoenix acquired Bridges in exchange for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale and a future first-round pick.
Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale were dependable rotation players, and both helped space the floor. Allen has been one of the better three-point shooters in the league for several seasons, while O'Neale gave Phoenix reliability without needing many touches. The Suns may have added more individual scoring with Bridges, but they also sacrificed some of the depth and three-point shooting that helped make last year's team functional.
Our projected second-five is Luke Kennard, Jordan Goodwin, Ryan Dunn, Oso Ighodaro and Mark Williams. Kennard replaces some of the shooting lost with Allen and O'Neale, while Goodwin and Dunn give Phoenix defensive energy. Williams gives them legitimate NBA center size when healthy. The question, as always with Williams, is how often that will be. His talent is not really the issue. Dependability is.
That is why Khaman Maluach may become one of the more important players on this roster. Maluach looked very good to us in Summer League, and if his development allows him to take on a much larger role in year-two, it would solve one of Phoenix's biggest structural problems. The Suns need rim protection and dependable size. If Maluach can provide those things without becoming an offensive liability, Phoenix would not have to lean nearly as heavily on small lineups.
Without that development, we think the Suns could spend a lot of time trying to survive with undersized frontcourts. Bridges is strong enough to play some four. Brooks can guard bigger players. Dunn has length. But there is a difference between being switchable and simply being small, particularly over the course of a long season against teams with real size.
We like Jordan Ott. We thought Ott did an excellent job in his first season as an NBA head coach and was one of the reasons Phoenix won as many games as it did. The Suns finished 45-37 after entering the season with a Vegas win total around 30.5, and Ott helped establish a much more coherent identity than many expected from a roster that had undergone major changes. Phoenix was also a top-ten defensive team by several measures despite not having dominant interior personnel. That speaks well of both the scheme and the buy-in.
Ott is sharp, and we think coaching matters here because this roster will require creativity. Phoenix has a lot of wings, several scorers and not enough dependable size. Figuring out which combinations can survive defensively while maintaining enough shooting will be an ongoing challenge.
Rookie Koa Peat is another wildcard. Phoenix acquired the 30th pick on draft night and brought the Arizona product back home after he averaged 14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists while shooting 52.8% from the field. Peat helped Arizona win a program-record 36 games and reach the Final Four, earning West Regional Most Outstanding Player honors along the way. He also won four consecutive state championships in high school and four gold medals with USA Basketball youth teams. Winning has followed him pretty much everywhere.
We like Peat's toughness, physicality and feel for the game. What we do not know yet is how much opportunity he will actually get. Phoenix has enough veteran forwards that a rookie could easily get squeezed out of the rotation, but if Peat proves ready earlier than expected, he gives Ott another strong, versatile body to work with.
That is really how we see the Suns overall. There are plenty of good NBA players there. Booker is a star. Bridges gives them another established offensive option. Williams can help when healthy.
What we do not see is a true superstar or a frontcourt we completely trust. That makes Phoenix vulnerable in a Western Conference where the best teams tend to have either elite top-end talent, overwhelming size or both.
Vegas has Phoenix at 38.5 wins.
We have the Suns at 37.
That puts Phoenix at No. 18 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
