The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#1 — Oklahoma City Thunder
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 62-20
Vegas Over/Under: 60.5 winsIf the Oklahoma City Thunder are healthy, we think they are the best team in the NBA.
That does not mean the gap between Oklahoma City and San Antonio is enormous. We actually see those two teams as being in a tier of their own, clearly ahead of the rest of the Western Conference. The Spurs may ultimately be a difficult matchup for the Thunder, particularly because of Victor Wembanyama, but over 82 games we give Oklahoma City the slightest edge.
The biggest reason for optimism is that last season's Thunder were already dominant despite not being whole when it mattered most. Jalen Williams, or J-Dub, missed 49 regular-season games because of wrist and hamstring problems, then continued to deal with a strained left hamstring during the playoffs. He missed 10 postseason games and was limited to five appearances, including just 10 minutes in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals before sitting out Game 7. Ajay Mitchell also missed Game 7 with a strained right soleus after previously filling in for Williams in the starting lineup. (nba.com)
That matters because our projection is built around a healthier version of the team.
Our projected main-five is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (photo below), Mitchell, Cason Wallace, J-Dub and Chet Holmgren. From an offensive-efficiency standpoint, we have that group ranked sixth in the NBA. Defensively, we have it either first or second, essentially neck-and-neck with San Antonio.
SGA remains the engine. He is one of the league's true superstars, and Oklahoma City has built the roster around him in a way that allows his strengths to shine. He can score efficiently, create late in the clock, draw fouls, and force defenses to collapse without needing the Thunder to sacrifice defense around him.
J-Dub is just as important to the structure. When healthy, he gives Oklahoma City another legitimate creator who can score, pass and defend multiple positions. Last postseason never really gave us the full version of him. The hamstring issue lingered, and by the Western Conference Finals he was clearly compromised. A healthier J-Dub makes the Thunder much more dangerous.
Mitchell's value grew while Williams was out. Wallace also fits perfectly because he can defend, move the ball and play without requiring a high usage rate.
Then there is Holmgren.
There is a narrative floating around that Wembanyama exposed Holmgren so badly that it diminishes what Chet is as a player. We do not buy that. Wembanyama gives almost everybody problems. That says more about Wemby than it does about Chet.
Holmgren remains a very good basketball player and an excellent defender. We have him rated as the second-best power forward from an efficiency standpoint, and that positional classification makes sense because Oklahoma City often plays him next to Isaiah Hartenstein, with Holmgren functioning as the four. Chet shot 36% from three last season, so he has enough range to make that alignment work.
There are areas where we would still like to see him improve. We think Holmgren could become more aware of teammates and improve his assist-to-turnover ratio. But none of that changes the larger point. He protects the rim, covers space, rebounds, stretches the floor enough and gives Oklahoma City another defensive anchor. There should be no shame in losing individual battles to Wembanyama.
Our projected second-five is Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Hartenstein and rookie Aday Mara. We have that group ranked fourth offensively and first defensively among NBA second-fives.
That defensive second-five is ridiculous. Caruso remains one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Hartenstein gives Oklahoma City size, physicality and rebounding. Jaylin Williams brings intelligence, positioning and frontcourt versatility. Then you add Mara, a 7-foot-2 rookie center, and suddenly the Thunder have even more length behind a defense that was already historically difficult to score against. Oklahoma City selected Mara 12th overall after his season at Michigan.
Mara is not being asked to become a major scorer immediately. If he gives Oklahoma City some offense, great. He has good touch, solid footwork and some clever post moves, including the hard two-hand pass fake (the okie-doke!) that can completely freeze a defender before he turns and finishes. But his immediate value may come from simply being enormous, protecting the paint and giving opposing offenses another obstacle to deal with.
McCain gives the second-five more scoring than it had previously. Oklahoma City acquired him from Philadelphia at the February trade deadline, and he gives the Thunder another guard who can shoot, create and play off the ball. That matters because this is not simply a defensive bench. We think the second-five offense is one of the best in the league too.
The depth goes well beyond ten players. Kenrich Williams could easily finish among the ten highest-minute players. Thomas Sorber is essentially still a rookie after missing all of last season. He tore the ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout in September 2025 after being selected 15th overall out of Georgetown. He later underwent a minor arthroscopic procedure this summer but is expected back to full basketball activity by the time the season begins. Sorber is easy to forget because we have barely seen him, but there was a reason Oklahoma City spent a first-round pick on him. At Georgetown he averaged 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals as a freshman. If he returns healthy, that is another frontcourt prospect added to an already absurdly deep roster.
Nikola Topic has had an even more unusual path. He was the 12th pick in the 2024 draft, missed his first season because of a knee injury suffered before the draft, and then was diagnosed with testicular cancer during the 2025 preseason. He underwent a procedure in October, completed chemotherapy and worked his way back to basketball, making his G League debut in February 2026 and later his NBA debut. He did appear briefly in the 2026 playoffs and underwent back surgery in June, with the expectation that he would be ready for training camp.
That is a former lottery pick who still has barely begun his NBA career, and Oklahoma City does not even need him to be part of the rotation right away.
The Thunder also added Bennett Stirtz in the draft and acquired Otega Oweh, while Brooks Barnhizer returns for his second season and Josh Dix is another young guard in the development pipeline. On a rebuilding team, several of these players would probably get significant minutes immediately. In Oklahoma City, they may have to wait.
That depth is almost unfair. Last season's numbers tell the larger story. Oklahoma City went 64-18 and had the best defensive rating in the NBA at 106.5. The second-best team was Detroit at 108.9, so this was not a narrow edge. The Thunder were operating at a different defensive level than everyone else.
Their net rating tells the same story. Oklahoma City finished at plus 11.1, while San Antonio and Detroit were tied for second at plus 8.4. That is a substantial gap. They were not simply winning a lot of close games. They were consistently outplaying teams on both ends.
They also took care of the basketball better than anyone. Oklahoma City led the NBA in turnover percentage at just 12.4%, another trait we put a lot of value in. Great teams do not waste possessions, and the Thunder were the best in the league at avoiding them.
And, once again, they did not have to play at some frantic pace to accomplish any of it. Oklahoma City ranked 16th in pace, almost exactly in the middle of the league, and won 64 games. They defended, took care of the ball, created efficient offense and controlled possessions. That is winning basketball.
The playoff matchup with San Antonio is the one thing that keeps us from acting as though Oklahoma City is clearly superior to everybody. The Spurs have given the Thunder problems, and Wembanyama presents a matchup that nobody really solves. Holmgren has struggled against him, and if those teams meet again in May, that could absolutely matter.
The Knicks won the championship last season, and they deserve every bit of credit for it. San Antonio may ultimately be the team that beats Oklahoma City. But this forecast is about who we think will be the best regular-season team entering 2026-27, and when we look at the complete picture, the Thunder have the fewest weaknesses.
They have a superstar in SGA. They have a healthy J-Dub returning. They have Holmgren and Hartenstein up front. They have perimeter defenders everywhere. They have one of the deepest second-fives in basketball. They have young talent sitting outside the main ten that many teams would gladly put directly into their rotation.
And they are coming off 64 wins despite dealing with major injuries.
Vegas has Oklahoma City at 60.5 wins.
We have the Thunder at 62.
That puts the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 1 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
