The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#14 — Portland Trail Blazers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 46-36
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5 winsOur Portland projection comes with one enormous qualifier: health.
That is true for every NBA team, of course, but it feels particularly important with the Trail Blazers. Damian Lillard (photo below) is returning after missing the entire 2025-26 season while recovering from the torn left Achilles he suffered during the 2025 playoffs. Lillard is now 36, and asking any player to immediately return to his previous level after an Achilles tear requires some faith. But if Portland gets something reasonably close to the Damian Lillard we remember, we think this team has a chance to be very good.
Then you put Ja Morant next to him.
Morant remains one of the most dynamic guards in basketball. The efficiency was down during an abbreviated 20-game season with Memphis last year, but he still averaged 19.5 points and 8.1 assists before Portland acquired him for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. The talent has never really been the question.
One part of Morant's game that we believe gets overlooked is how much better he has become defensively from where he began his career. He is capable of being a good point-of-attack defender when he is engaged. There is still one habit we would love to see disappear: Morant falls to the floor far too often after attacking the basket. Sometimes there is contact, sometimes he is looking for a whistle, but when the call does not come, Portland can suddenly be defending five-on-four at the other end. Staying on his feet more consistently would only help him become a more dependable defensive player.
Regardless, putting Morant and Lillard in the same backcourt is going to cause problems for opponents. Both can create advantages off the dribble, both can run an offense, and Lillard's shooting range should create considerably more room for Morant to attack.
Our projected main-five in season-long minutes is Morant, Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara.
Originally, we thought Shaedon Sharpe had an excellent chance to be part of that group. That changed dramatically in late August when Sharpe suffered a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee during an offseason workout. He underwent surgery on August 26 and will not even be reevaluated for six months. That means a significant portion of his season is already in jeopardy, which removes him from consideration for our main-five projection. Sharpe averaged a career-high 20.8 points last season.
Again, our main-five represents the five players we project to finish the season with the most total minutes. It is not necessarily our preferred starting lineup.
With Sharpe out, Holiday becomes a much easier main-five projection. At 36, he may no longer be the absolute peak version of Jrue Holiday, but he remains an intelligent two-way guard who can play either backcourt spot. Having him alongside Lillard and Morant gives new head coach Micah Nori enormous flexibility in how he deploys those three guards. Nori takes over after serving on Minnesota's staff and now inherits one of the deeper collections of ball-handlers in the league.
Avdija may be every bit as important. He developed into Portland's leading scorer and an All-Star last season, and he gives this guard-heavy roster a bigger creator who can initiate offense from the forward position. Camara provides the defensive toughness and versatility that helps make some of these smaller lineups possible.
That group is also why we are bullish on Portland's overall efficiency. Lillard, Morant, Holiday and Avdija give the Blazers four experienced players who can create offense without requiring somebody else to manufacture every opportunity for them. If Donovan Clingan eventually works his way into the main-five in total minutes, the group could become even more efficient because of what he provides around the basket.
Our projected second-five is Scoot Henderson, Vít Krejci, Sidy Cissoko, Jeremy Sochan and Clingan.
Clingan's placement there probably jumps off the page. We are not saying Clingan will be Portland's backup center. He will very likely start plenty of games and could easily be Nori's primary five-man. This is another case where our main-five and second-five terminology is strictly about season-long minute totals. Clingan did not finish among Portland's five highest-minute players last season, and the Blazers have generally used him in shorter stints rather than simply leaving him on the floor for 35 minutes every night.
That could absolutely change under Nori. Clingan is only 22, stands 7-foot-2 and gives Portland a defensive anchor and rebounder that this collection of guards needs. If Nori increases his workload significantly, Clingan could very easily finish in the main-five, with somebody such as Camara sliding into the second-five.
Henderson remains one of the major wild cards. Portland now has Lillard, Morant, Holiday, Henderson and Krejci, five players capable of initiating offense to varying degrees. Krejci has the size to play multiple positions and Holiday has spent much of his career playing alongside another point guard, so the fit is not quite as strange as it looks on paper. But there is undeniably a crowd at the position.
There may also be a reason Portland intentionally went overboard on ball-handling. The Blazers finished dead last in the NBA last season in assist-to-turnover ratio at just 1.46 assists for every turnover. That ranked 30th out of 30 teams. Portland also finished only 23rd in assists per game despite playing at one of the league's faster paces. For a team that went 42-40, that is an obvious area where there was room for substantial improvement.
Adding Lillard and Morant ought to help.
Lillard has spent his entire career running high-level NBA offenses. Morant averaged 8.1 assists in his limited action last season. Holiday can initiate. Henderson can initiate. The challenge for Nori may be less about finding somebody who can run the offense and more about making sure everybody remains useful when the ball is not in his hands.
That is especially important for Henderson. With so many experienced guards around him, his path to a major role is no longer automatic. He needs to show that he can impact games efficiently whether he is functioning as the primary ball-handler or playing alongside one.
Sochan is another interesting addition. He comes to Portland on a one-year deal after splitting last season between San Antonio and New York. He gives the Blazers another versatile defender and ball mover, although his offensive limitations can affect spacing.
Beyond our projected top ten, Robert Williams III could easily force his way into the main-ten if he stays healthy. The issue is that availability questions have followed him throughout his career. When Williams plays, his efficiency, rim protection and rebounding are obvious. We just have difficulty projecting a major season-long minute total for someone who has so rarely been able to accumulate one.
Yang Hansen remains an intriguing developmental big. Portland would love to see another step forward from him this season, particularly with Clingan and Williams providing a very different type of center competition.
We also think Micah Potter and John Tonje are worth watching on the deeper portion of the roster. Neither is someone we are projecting into the main-ten right now, but both have a chance to earn opportunities if injuries create openings.
Sharpe's injury hurts. There is no way around that. He was coming off the best scoring season of his career, and Portland will probably be without him until sometime after the All-Star break at minimum. His official timetable calls for reevaluation at six months, not necessarily a return at six months.
That brings us back to where we started. This projection is a health bet.
If Lillard does not resemble Lillard, 46 wins is probably too aggressive. If Morant misses significant time, the ceiling comes down. If Holiday's age begins to show more dramatically or Williams remains unavailable, Portland's depth can thin out quickly.
But if Lillard returns at something close to his previous level, Morant stays on the floor, and Nori gets the pieces to fit, we see a team with an unusually deep collection of creators, plenty of defensive versatility and several highly efficient players.
Portland went 42-40 last season.
We think the additions of Lillard and Morant are worth more than 1.5 additional victories if the health cooperates.
Vegas has Portland at 43.5 wins.
We have the Trail Blazers at 46.
That puts Portland at No. 14 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
