The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#13 — Houston Rockets
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 47-35
Vegas Over/Under: 47.5 winsThe strength of the Houston Rockets is pretty easy to identify. We like the defense of both their main-five and second-five, and that gives Houston one of the stronger defensive foundations in the league. The Rockets won 52 games last season and posted a 112.1 defensive rating, so this is not a projection based solely on personnel. They have already shown they can defend at a high level under Ime Udoka.
What gives us a little more pause is the offensive efficiency of the projected main-five. We have Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant (photo below), Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun finishing the season as Houston's five highest-minute players. There is plenty of talent there, but we do not see that group as an elite efficiency unit from top to bottom.
VanVleet is the biggest question. He missed the entire 2025-26 season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during a workout just before training camp. He exercised his $25 million player option for this season, and there has been optimism that he could be ready for opening night, but he has not played an NBA game since May of 2025. Before the injury, VanVleet had already begun to slip some from an efficiency standpoint, averaging 14.1 points while shooting 37.8% from the field and 34.5% from three in 2024-25. At age 32 and coming off a torn ACL, we think conditioning is going to be especially important. If he comes back in the best shape of his career, maybe he can stabilize or even reverse that decline. If not, another efficiency dip would not surprise us.
Amen Thompson remains one of the defensive centerpieces of this team. His length, quickness and ability to disrupt actions are a major reason we like Houston's defense. The offensive question remains obvious: the three-point shot still has to improve (21.9% 3-pt FG, career). He does enough other things well to remain valuable, but until defenses have to respect him consistently outside, there will always be some spacing pressure on the rest of the lineup.
Durant is still very good. Even an older, slightly diminished, version of Durant is still one of the best offensive players on the floor most nights, and Houston does not need him to carry the entire offense. Sengun is one of the more efficient centers in the league and remains a major offensive hub, while Smith gives them size, toughness and defensive versatility. Smith has never been one of the league's most efficient scorers, but he competes, defends and fits the identity Udoka wants.
That defensive identity extends well beyond the first five. Our projected second-five is Reed Sheppard, Marcus Smart, Tari Eason, Clint Capela and Steven Adams. From an efficiency standpoint, we see that as a fairly average group. Defensively, however, it can be a problem for opponents.
Smart's reputation speaks for itself. Eason has always had terrific rebounding instincts and defensive activity. Capela can still protect the basket and rebound, while Adams is simply enormous and difficult to move. He sets brutal screens, occupies space and makes opponents work around him. Sheppard is undersized, but his hands are extremely quick and disruptive. He has the kind of anticipation that can compensate for some of the physical disadvantages he gives up.
That is a second-five with a lot of different ways to make an opponent uncomfortable.
There is also some interesting depth beyond our projected main ten. Rookie Bruce Thornton is someone we think has a chance to earn minutes. Houston traded up to acquire him with the 31st pick after a four-year career at Ohio State in which he became the school's all-time leading scorer. He also finished his college career with a 3.02 assist-to-turnover ratio and shot 41.2% from three over his final two seasons. He is experienced, strong and accustomed to having the ball in his hands, which could make him useful if VanVleet needs his workload managed.
Jae'Sean Tate is still around and gives Udoka another physical, dependable option. Houston also added Bogdan Bogdanovic on a one-year deal after the Clippers declined his option. Bogdanovic is 34 and missed 59 games last season because of a hamstring injury, so we are not sure how much is left or whether he ultimately becomes part of the regular rotation. The shooting history is there, he is a career 38.1% three-point shooter, but at this stage he feels more like veteran depth than someone we automatically pencil into the main ten.
Houston's roster construction makes sense because the defense travels. Even if the offense is not humming, Thompson, Smith, Eason, Smart, and Adams give Udoka a lot of combinations that can defend, rebound and make games physical. That matters over 82 games, and it is probably the biggest reason we are comfortable projecting another strong season even though we are not quite as high as Vegas.
The concern is whether the offense has enough efficiency to push Houston into the very top tier of the West. VanVleet is returning from a major knee injury. Thompson still needs to become a better shooter. Durant and Sengun do not have great chemistry. There is always a chance that the relationship could worsen which could lead to changes.
That does not mean Houston cannot win a lot of games. They already won 52 last season with defense as a major part of the formula. We simply think there may be a little regression in the regular-season win total, particularly if VanVleet takes time to look like himself again.
Vegas has Houston at 47.5 wins.
We have the Rockets at 47.
That puts Houston at No. 13 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
