The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#12 — Boston Celtics
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 47-35
Vegas Over/Under: 51.5 winsThe biggest reason Boston remains this high in our rankings is simple: Jayson Tatum (photo below) is back.
Tatum ruptured his right Achilles tendon in Game 4 of Boston's 2025 Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Knicks and underwent surgery on May 13, 2025. Remarkably, he made it back in less than ten months, returning on March 6 against Dallas. In his first game back, Tatum played 27 minutes and finished with 15 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. Barring a setback, Boston should enter this season with the expectation that Tatum is available from the beginning rather than spending most of the year waiting for him.
Our projected main-five in season-long minutes is Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Paul George, Tatum and Neemias Queta, and we really like that group defensively. White remains one of the better defensive guards in the league. George, even at this stage of his career, has size, instincts and defensive versatility. Tatum has always been a very good defender when engaged, while Queta gives Boston legitimate size and rim protection in the middle. Even Pritchard, while certainly not the defensive strength of the group, competes and makes opponents work.
That defense is probably the biggest reason we are comfortable putting Boston at No. 12. The Celtics went 56-26 last season despite Tatum missing 62 games before his March return, and they again built much of their success around making opponents work for everything.
The major offseason change is George, who comes over from Philadelphia in the deal that sent Jaylen Brown to the Sixers. Boston also picked up two first-round picks and two second-round picks in the trade. George averaged 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists last season while shooting 39.2% from three, so there is still plenty of basketball left there when he is available.
Availability is the problem. George played only 37 games last season after playing just 41 the year before. At 36, we are no longer comfortable projecting anything close to a full season. If Boston gets 65 games from him, that would be an enormous victory. Frankly, even 55 might qualify as a pretty good outcome given what the last two seasons have looked like.
Queta gives Boston another player we really like within the main-five. He started 69 games last season and averaged 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 64% from the field. More importantly for this projection, he gives Boston size and defensive presence without requiring touches. With Tatum, George and White around him, the Celtics can put a lot of defensive length on the floor without asking Queta to become something offensively that he is not.
The projected second-five is Mike Conley Jr., Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Sam Hauser and Mitchell Robinson. This is where we become a little less enthusiastic about Boston. The group has useful pieces, but from an efficiency standpoint we do not see a particularly strong second-five outside of Robinson.
Robinson is a tremendous addition. Boston signed him to a three-year deal after he helped New York win the championship last season. He averaged 8.8 rebounds in just 19.6 minutes per game during the regular season, and he remains one of the best offensive rebounders and interior defenders in basketball. His free-throw shooting can become a problem late in games, but when he is on the floor, he can create extra possessions, protect the rim and finish efficiently without needing plays called for him.
Having Queta and Robinson gives Boston two legitimate centers who can defend and rebound, and we think that matters. There are teams in this league trying to manufacture center minutes from undersized forwards or inefficient bigs. Boston does not have that problem.
Conley concerns us considerably more. He has had an excellent career and by all accounts is exactly the kind of veteran presence teams want around younger players, but at this stage we have to separate that from his on-court efficiency. His production has declined enough that we are not completely convinced he will remain among Boston's ten highest-minute players by the end of the season.
Walsh, Scheierman and Hauser also leave us wanting more from an efficiency standpoint. There are useful traits there, particularly Hauser's shooting, but none of the three currently gives us the kind of production that makes us view Boston's second-five as a major strength. This is a very different situation from some of the teams immediately behind Boston in our rankings that have legitimate offensive weapons sitting outside their projected main-five.
There are, however, several players who could change that calculation. Hugo Gonzalez could certainly crack the main-ten, and it would not surprise us if he eventually takes a spot from Scheierman. Scheierman played more minutes last season, which is why we currently have him ahead in the projection, but that does not mean it stays that way.
Rookie Chris Cenac Jr. is another interesting long-term piece. There is plenty to like about his size and talent, but we view him more as a developmental investment than someone Boston should need to depend on immediately. Amari Williams is another center we like, although the presence of Queta, Robinson and probably Luka Garza leaves Williams buried in what is suddenly a very deep center rotation.
Garza is a pretty good third center to have, which says something about Boston's depth at that position. Dillon Mitchell, another rookie, is a terrific athlete, but we would be surprised if he earns major rotation minutes right away.
That leaves us with a Celtics team that is still very good, but one we see differently from a 51- or 52-win team. Tatum's return changes everything. White remains excellent. George is still capable of playing at a high level. Queta and Robinson give them real defensive strength at center. The main-five defense has a chance to be among the better groups in basketball.
The questions come once we move beyond that. George has played 78 total regular-season games over the last two seasons. Conley's efficiency is heading in the wrong direction. Walsh, Scheierman and Hauser do not give us much reason to project an elite second unit, and Boston no longer has Jaylen Brown to absorb difficult offensive possessions when Tatum sits.
Vegas sees 51.5 wins.
We have Boston at 47.
That puts the Celtics at No. 12 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
#11 coming soon.
