The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#11 — New York Knicks
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 48-34
Vegas Over/Under: 52.5 winsYes, we have the defending NBA champions ranked 11th. I understand how that sounds. But this is not a prediction that the Knicks are suddenly bad. We have them winning 48 games, and the difference between New York and several of the teams ahead of them is extremely small. I easily could have cheated my true feelings and ranked the Knicks higher. But that's not what we do here. This is independent thought.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with New York's main-five. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns (photo below) are the champs. We actually like the defensive ability of this main-five a little more than its overall offensive efficiency. Bridges and Anunoby are tremendous defenders, but from an offensive-efficiency standpoint we see both more in the average-to-above-average range than among the league's elite producers. Hart does so many winning things without needing shots, Brunson remains the offensive engine, and Towns gives New York high-level scoring efficiency from the center position.
The Knicks finished in the top seven in the NBA in both offensive rating and defensive rating last season, which tells you just how complete they were on the way to winning the championship. This was not some fluky postseason run by a mediocre regular-season team. New York was excellent at both ends, won 53 games and then finished the job in the playoffs.
Any hesitation begins when we move to the projected second-five of Jose Alvarado, Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet and Andre Drummond. Defensively, we really like this group. Alvarado and McBride get after people and can make life miserable for opposing guards. Drummond still provides size, rebounding and enough defensive presence in the middle. Offensively, however, the overall efficiency of this group does not excite us nearly as much.
Drummond is an interesting case because there was a point in his career when he produced huge efficiency numbers, particularly in systems like ours that value rebounding. He can still rebound at a very high level, but at this stage he does not give you much else offensively, and his overall efficiency is not what it once was. He is still a useful NBA center. We just don't see him as an equal replacement for Mitchell Robinson.
That loss matters to us. Robinson did not need the basketball to impact winning. His offensive rebounding created extra possessions, he finished efficiently around the rim, and he gave New York another legitimate defensive presence. Drummond can replace some of the rebounding, but we don't believe he replaces the total package, particularly from an efficiency standpoint.
And fractions are going to matter in the Eastern Conference this season.
There are several really good teams clustered near the top, and many of them appear to be all-in. We are not predicting injuries to anybody, but health will obviously play a major role in separating these teams. When the margins are that small, losing a player such as Robinson and replacing him with a slightly less efficient version of that type of player can be enough to cost a team a few wins.
Clarkson can still create his own shot and occasionally provide a huge scoring night. Shamet supplies shooting, while Alvarado and McBride give the Knicks ball-handling and excellent defensive pressure. There are useful skills throughout this second-five. We simply see it as a much stronger defensive group than offensive one.
Beyond our projected main ten, Tyler Kolek could certainly find minutes, particularly if the Knicks need another organizer. Mohamed Diawara and Pacôme Dadiet remain developmental possibilities. New York also drafted shooter Tyler Nickel and European guard Jack Kayil, although we would be surprised if either rookie has a significant role on a team trying to defend an NBA championship.
Last season also provided another example of why we continue to question the constant obsession with playing faster. New York played at the 25th-fastest pace in the NBA.
They somehow survived long enough to win the NBA championship.
That doesn't mean playing slowly is inherently better, either. Our point has always been that pace by itself does not equal quality basketball. The Knicks defended, executed, took care of possessions, generated efficient offense and won games. We would much rather see a team play at the pace that best fits its personnel than chase some arbitrary goal of playing faster simply because playing fast sounds progressive.
So why are we stopping at 48 wins? Mostly because we think the Eastern Conference around New York has gotten better. The Knicks still have an excellent main-five, outstanding defensive personnel, championship experience and one of the best guards in the league in Brunson. But the second-five concerns us offensively, Robinson's departure matters, and the teams near the top of this conference are close enough that a few small differences can move a team several spots in a forecast like this.
For Knicks fans who have reached this point and are still preparing an angry response, I will offer one reminder in my defense: Hoop Obsession remains completely free. No subscription. No paywall. No pop-up ads. You are getting this questionable prediction at the unbeatable price of absolutely nothing.
More seriously, having New York at No. 11 is not disrespecting the defending champions. We are projecting 48 victories. That is an excellent basketball team. We simply believe ten other teams have a slightly better chance to produce more regular-season wins.
Vegas has New York at 52.5 wins.
We have the Knicks at 48.
That puts the defending NBA champions at No. 11 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
