The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#28 — Milwaukee Bucks
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 24-58
Vegas Over/Under: 26.5 winsThe Giannis Antetokounmpo era is over in Milwaukee, and that changes everything.
After 13 seasons, two MVP awards and a championship, Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to Miami in a eye-opener that sent Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and future draft assets back to Milwaukee. Bobby Portis went to Miami with Giannis. The Bucks are now trying to piece together the leftovers of two teams while beginning a very different phase of their franchise.
Our long-view projected main-five is Kevin Porter Jr., Tyler Herro, Kyle Kuzma, Kel'el Ware and Myles Turner. That lineup has enough scoring and size to make Milwaukee competitive on some nights, but we have serious questions about how well it will defend over the course of a season.
Herro immediately becomes Milwaukee's most dependable perimeter scorer. Ware gives the Bucks an intriguing young interior piece, and pairing him with Turner creates a very large frontcourt. But once Giannis leaves the equation, Milwaukee loses one of the most disruptive and versatile defenders of his generation. That is impossible to replace with one transaction.
The projected second-five is almost entirely new as well. Only Ryan Rollins and A.J. Green return from last year's Bucks rotation in our projected bench group. We currently have rookie Brayden Burries running with Caris LeVert and Jaime Jaquez Jr., although those roles are hardly set in stone. We believe Burries has the talent to eventually start, and Jaquez could very easily find himself in the main-five.
Gary Trent Jr. is also going to get minutes, and his new contract practically guarantees that. Milwaukee re-signed Trent to a four-year, $64 million contract after he declined a $3.9 million player option for this season. The new deal averages $16 million annually, with $15.2 million coming in 2026-27. Considering Trent averaged just 8.1 points last season while shooting 36% from three, we were shocked by the size and length of the deal.
Our numbers make us even more skeptical. Trent ranked 104th out of 104 shooting guards in HOC last season and posted a minus-2.1 DDiff. He has a long history as a capable three-point shooter, but Milwaukee is paying for considerably more than shooting gravity at that price. We need to see a substantial bounce-back in overall efficiency and defensive impact before viewing him as a positive piece of the next Bucks core.
Burries is one of the biggest reasons we are interested in watching this team. Milwaukee selected him 10th overall after one season at Arizona, and his first Summer League was outstanding. In four games, Burries averaged 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 block while shooting 50.0% from the field and 36.4% from three. Even more impressive, he finished with 17 assists against only three turnovers, a 5.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
It was a small sample, and Summer League should always be kept in perspective, but Burries was poised and productive. We are very high on him.
There is no shortage of young talent behind him.
Kasparas Jakucionis arrives from Miami with excellent vision and a creative, sometimes flashy style of play. We believe he has real upside and the kind of fun game that Bucks fans can embrace while this team develops. Nate Ament is another intriguing piece. Miami selected the 6-foot-10 forward 13th overall and sent his draft rights to Milwaukee as part of the Giannis trade. Ament spent one season at Tennessee before entering the draft, and his combination of size, fluidity and ball skills is uncommon for a 19-year-old forward. Milwaukee should be in the business of taking swings on players like this right now.
Bogoljub Markovic adds another developmental piece to the mix. Milwaukee drafted the 6-foot-11 Serbian 47th overall in 2025 and allowed him to remain overseas with Mega Basket rather than rushing him into the NBA. Now 21, he is expected to make the jump.
Then there is Ousmane Dieng, who remains something of a wildcard. The former 2022 lottery pick is still only 23, which makes it too early for us to completely dismiss him. His three-point percentage has improved in each NBA season, and that progression matters. For a player with Dieng's size, becoming a dependable perimeter shooter would make his offensive role much easier to define.
Milwaukee also has a new head coach, and we like the hire.
Taylor Jenkins returns to Milwaukee after previously serving as an assistant there during the 2018-19 season. His experience in Memphis feels particularly relevant to what the Bucks are attempting now. Jenkins helped oversee a young Grizzlies group that developed into a legitimate Western Conference contender, and Milwaukee will need that same combination of patience, player development and accountability.
The question is how quickly Jenkins can build a competent defense out of this roster.
Turner can protect the rim. Ware has the physical tools to become a meaningful defender. Jaquez competes. Green can hold his own. But there are a lot of lineup combinations here that concern us defensively, especially on the perimeter. Herro, Porter and Kuzma together create obvious pressure points, and the younger players are going to make young-player mistakes.
Milwaukee went 32-50 last season. Now the best player in franchise history is gone, Portis is gone with him, the coaching staff is changing and a large portion of the rotation is being rebuilt on the fly.
That does not mean this is a hopeless situation.
In fact, we think the Bucks have accumulated a surprisingly interesting collection of young players. Burries, Ament, Ware, Jakucionis, Markovic and Dieng all give Milwaukee something to evaluate. Herro is still young enough to be more than merely a temporary veteran, and Jaquez is another player who could grow into a larger role.
But young talent and winning talent are not always the same thing at the same moment.
We think Milwaukee is a season or two away from knowing which of these pieces truly belong in its next winning core. In the meantime, there will be developmental minutes, lineup experimentation and, we suspect, plenty of defensive growing pains.
Vegas has the Bucks at 26.5 wins.
We have Milwaukee at 24.
That puts the Bucks at No. 28 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.