The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#27 — L.A. Clippers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 25-57
Vegas Over/Under: 30.5 wins(August 26, 2026). The Clippers have the lowest-rated projected main-five in the NBA according to our Hoop Obsession Calculation (HOC), and we expect this season to be a struggle.
Our biggest concern is simple: we do not see enough legitimate, efficient, dependable size.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser would help solve some of that problem, but his availability is uncertain. Niederhauser suffered a Lisfranc injury in his right foot in March and underwent season-ending surgery. He later had a follow-up procedure to remove hardware from the original operation, which was described as a normal part of the recovery process. As of July, he was still in a walking boot. We are not going to pretend we know exactly when he will be back, but given the nature of the injury and the follow-up procedure, it is fair to wonder how much the Clippers can count on him early in the season.
Without Niederhauser, the Clippers' conventional center options are basically Isaiah Jackson and Brook Lopez. Jackson brings energy and athleticism, but we have a hard time projecting him as a main-five center over an 82-game season. Lopez is 38 years old and, from an efficiency standpoint, appears to be well past the point where we would want him playing major minutes.
That leaves Los Angeles in position to play small.
Our current projected main-five is Darius Garland (photo above), Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Brandon Ingram and Rui Hachimura. Garland can create offense, Ingram can score, and Jones gives the group some needed defensive versatility. But this is still a very small lineup by NBA standards, and there is no dependable high-level center anchoring it.
The second-five now projects as rookie Keaton Wagler, Bradley Beal, Max Strus, Kobe Sanders and Lopez. Wagler was the No. 5 pick in the draft and remains one of the most interesting long-term pieces on the roster. We like his size, feel and shot-making ability, but he is still 19 years old and should not be expected to immediately drive NBA wins. Beal and Strus give the Clippers veteran scoring and shooting, while Sanders showed signs late last season that he may be a legitimate NBA rotation player.
One player who now has to be removed from the early-season rotation picture is Jordan Miller. Miller underwent surgery on August 26 to repair a torn left rotator cuff suffered during an offseason workout and will be reevaluated in six months. That means he is unlikely to return before late February or March, and even that would depend on how the shoulder responds. The timing is especially unfortunate because Miller had just re-signed on a three-year, $15.3 million contract after averaging 10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 60 games last season. His absence removes another useful perimeter option from an already thin rotation.
There are still other developmental players here that interest us. Gradey Dick comes over from Toronto in the proposed Kawhi Leonard deal and gives the Clippers another young shooter. Nick Martinelli was a player we liked in college and is now on a two-way contract after averaging 23.0 points as a senior at Northwestern while shooting 51.0% from the field and 41.7% from three.
Johni Broome is another player we like. Broome came over from Philadelphia in a July trade after barely getting an opportunity with the 76ers last season. Given the Clippers' lack of dependable size, there should at least be an opportunity there.
The larger story, though, is just how dramatically this roster has changed.
James Harden was traded to Cleveland in February for Garland. One day later, Ivica Zubac was sent to Indiana in the deal that brought back Bennedict Mathurin, Jackson and the pick that eventually became Wagler. Mathurin is now headed to New Orleans, which removes another potential scorer from the Clippers' rotation.
Now Kawhi Leonard is expected to be next.
The Clippers agreed to send Leonard back to Toronto in a deal centered around Ingram, Dick and significant draft compensation. One important note: as of this writing, that transaction has been held up while the NBA completes its investigation into allegations involving Leonard and the Clippers. Our projection assumes the trade ultimately goes through. If Leonard remains in Los Angeles, obviously this ranking would require another look.
To be fair to the Clippers, they went 42-40 last season despite starting an almost unbelievable 6-21. They were 23-27 when the Harden and Zubac trades were made and finished 19-13 from that point forward. That deserves credit.
But there are two reasons we are reluctant to carry that late-season success forward. First, Kawhi was still there. He played 65 games and averaged 27.9 points. Taking him out of that late-season equation matters enormously. Second, we have always been cautious about putting too much weight on late-season NBA results involving teams with incentives to lose. Those games can look very different from games played in November or January.
Ultimately, we come back to the roster construction. The projected main-five ranks last in the league in HOC. There is no dependable high-level center available at the moment. The Clippers may be forced to play undersized lineups for substantial stretches. Their best young prospect is a 19-year-old rookie. Niederhauser's recovery timetable is uncertain. Miller is now expected to miss at least six months. Mathurin is gone. And the roster has lost Harden, Zubac and, assuming the Toronto transaction is completed, Leonard in a matter of months.
There are players here we like. There just are not enough players we trust to consistently produce efficient winning basketball.
Vegas has the Clippers at 30.5 wins.
We have Los Angeles at 25.
That puts the Clippers at No. 27 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
