The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#24 — New Orleans Pelicans
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 33-49
Vegas Over/Under: 27.5 winsThe New Orleans Pelicans suddenly look a little more interesting than they did when we first started putting these rankings together. Dejounte Murray should be back for what New Orleans hopes will be something close to a full season, and the late-August addition of Bennedict Mathurin gives the Pelicans another proven scorer in his prime. We still see some fairly serious issues with the roster, but there is enough offensive talent here for us to be considerably more optimistic than Vegas.
Murray missed a huge portion of last season while working his way back from the torn right Achilles tendon he suffered in January 2025, then dealt with another injury after returning. If he is healthy now, New Orleans finally gets to see what this team looks like with Murray directing the offense from the beginning of the season rather than trying to work himself back into form midway through it.
The newest addition is Bennedict Mathurin, who agreed to a two-year, $16 million contract with New Orleans that includes a player option. Mathurin averaged a career-high 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 54 games split between Indiana and the Clippers last season. He brings something this roster needed: another player who can create his own offense, play through contact and bring some physicality to the perimeter. Mathurin is not a perfect player, and his 31.5% three-point shooting last season certainly does not help a team that already has spacing concerns, but we like the talent and the value of the addition.
Our revised projected main-five is Murray, Mathurin, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson.
We still admire Zion's game tremendously. He made only 25% of his three-point attempts last season, and at this stage we see little reason to continue pretending he is a traditional power forward. He is an LPS (low percentage shooter from 3) who happens to be one of the most devastating interior scorers in basketball. When Zion catches the ball around the elbow or elbow extended and gets a couple of dribbles toward the basket, there are very few defenders in the NBA equipped to handle the combination of strength, explosiveness and touch that comes next. He makes runners, bankers and awkward-looking finishes at an absurd rate.
So play him at the five.
There will be nights when New Orleans gives up size, but the tradeoff is a cleaner floor around Zion. Murray can create, Mathurin can attack, Murphy can shoot, and Bey gives them another legitimate perimeter threat. We would rather maximize Zion's offensive advantage than compromise the spacing by pairing him with another traditional center for heavy minutes.
Murphy remains the player on this roster we trust the most. He shot 37.9% from three last season, finished with better than a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and ranked 11th among small forwards in our HOC rankings. He is smart, efficient, has excellent positional size and is entering what should be the beginning of his prime. We continue to believe Murphy is one of the young wings around the NBA who does not get talked about enough. He is the kind of player virtually every team would covet because he can help without requiring the entire offense to be built around him.
Bey also helps the spacing of our preferred starting group. He gives New Orleans another established forward who opponents have to account for outside, and that becomes particularly important when Zion is occupying the middle.
Our projected second-five is Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole, Herb Jones, Derik Queen and Yves Missi. That is a fascinating bench because it offers almost every imaginable type of player. Fears provides youth and creation. Poole can generate offense in a hurry. Jones gives the group an elite defensive presence. Queen provides skill and physicality in the frontcourt, while Missi gives New Orleans a more conventional center option when matchups demand it.
Poole remains one of the biggest wildcards on the entire roster. It is still difficult for us to reconcile the player we watched during Golden State's championship run with the inefficient player he has often become since leaving the Warriors. The shot-making talent did not simply disappear. Last season's quad strain contributed to another interrupted year, and he now enters the final season of the four-year, $123 million extension he originally signed with Golden State. He is owed roughly $34 million this season before becoming a free agent in 2027.
That expiring contract also makes Poole an obvious trade candidate if New Orleans decides to make another move. But if he stays, using him as a second-unit scorer rather than asking him to carry the entire offense might actually be a better role for him. We still believe there is a productive NBA player in there. We are just no longer willing to assume he will consistently appear.
Jones is another interesting rotation question. We have tremendous respect for his defense, but the offensive limitations matter. On a team that has struggled with efficiency and spacing, there are stretches where playing Jones can make the offense feel like it is operating four-on-five. Moving him into the second-five is not an indictment of his value. It simply gives New Orleans an opportunity to use his defense more situationally rather than automatically building the starting lineup around it.
Queen could also make this projection look conservative if he takes a significant step in year-two. We liked what he showed as a rookie, and his combination of skill, strength and feel gives New Orleans another frontcourt player who can create offense rather than merely finish it.
The shooting still concerns us. New Orleans ranked 27th in the NBA last season with only 11.1 made three-pointers per game, and Mathurin's addition does not necessarily solve that problem. Murphy and Bey help. Poole can certainly get hot. But there are still several important players on this roster whom defenses will be willing to test from the perimeter.
The major change on the sideline is Jamahl Mosley, who inherits a team that went 26-56. The Pelicans also added Trendon Watford, while rookie Malik Dia is on a two-way contract. Jaron Pierre Jr. was their draft selection, although we are not expecting the rookies to be the primary drivers of whatever improvement comes this season. The bigger reasons for optimism are the return of Murray, the addition of Mathurin and the possibility of more logical lineup construction.
This is still a team with questions. Zion's availability is always part of the equation. Murray is returning from a major injury. Poole remains unpredictable. The defense could be shaky, particularly with some of the offensive lineups we prefer. And the three-point shooting still does not look like a strength.
But there is considerably more scoring here than there was a year ago. Murray, Mathurin, Murphy and Zion give New Orleans four legitimate offensive threats in the main-five, while Poole and Queen give the bench some scoring punch. If Mosley can find enough defense without sacrificing the spacing, we think the Pelicans can make a seven-win jump from last season.
Vegas has New Orleans at 27.5 wins.
We have the Pelicans at 33.
That puts New Orleans at No. 24 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
