The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#23 — Charlotte Hornets
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 34-48
Vegas Over/Under: 37.5 winsThe Charlotte Hornets are one of the more difficult teams to project because they just traded away the two players most capable of bending a defense on their own.
LaMelo Ball is gone. So is Miles Bridges. Ball was traded to Minnesota for Naz Reid, an unprotected 2033 first-round pick, three first-round pick swaps and three second-round picks. Bridges was later sent to Phoenix in a deal that brought back Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale and another 2033 first-round pick. Charlotte clearly chose to cash in on two of its most valuable veterans rather than simply run back a team that had finally started winning.
The Ball trade was especially surprising because Charlotte actually finished 44-38 last season and went 33-16 from January 1 through the end of the regular season. Hornets president Jeff Peterson later explained that the organization looked at the totality of the season and where the team stood long term, and decided the return was strong enough to justify making the move. In other words, Charlotte did not appear desperate to dump Ball. It listened, Minnesota came with a major asset package, and the Hornets decided that was the better long-term play.
The result is a roster that still has plenty of competent NBA players, but not the same top-end shot creation. Our projected main-five is Coby White, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller (photo above), Royce O'Neale and Moussa Diabaté. That is not a bad group at all, but it is also not one of the league's more efficient starting units.
White is a good NBA guard and should be capable of handling a larger creation role, but he is not as efficient or as dynamic as Ball was. Knueppel is coming off an excellent rookie season and becomes one of the biggest swing pieces on the roster. If he makes another meaningful jump in year-two, Charlotte's offensive ceiling changes considerably. Miller is already a quality scoring wing, and the Hornets should continue giving him more responsibility now that Ball and Bridges are gone.
The frontcourt is where we start to see more uncertainty. O'Neale is a useful veteran and could certainly play enough minutes to function as a starter, whether Charlotte uses him at the three and slides Miller to the four or simply plays O'Neale as a smaller four. Diabaté is a productive NBA player, but in our HOC rankings he finished 46th among centers. That is not a criticism of Diabaté as much as a reflection of the role. He looks to us more like a quality rotation center who may be asked to handle main-five minutes.
Of course, Charlotte could solve some of that by moving Naz Reid into the main-five. Reid has historically thrived as a sixth man, so for now we have him in our projected second group with Dennis Schröder, Grayson Allen, Grant Williams and Ryan Kalkbrenner. But that lineup is hardly set in stone. Reid could easily wind up playing more minutes than either Diabaté or O'Neale, and if that happens, the Hornets' offensive efficiency could improve.
The bench has some experienced scoring and shooting, but it also raises questions about how Charlotte replaces the individual creation that Ball and Bridges provided. What we do not see is an obvious replacement for the moments when Ball simply created something out of nothing.
One of our favorite players deeper on the roster is Liam McNeeley. We thought he looked noticeably leaner and better conditioned in Las Vegas this summer than the last time we saw him. That matters because McNeeley already has the skill level and shooting ability to become a legitimate NBA rotation wing. If his physical development continues, we think he has a real chance to force his way into the rotation. That can create an interesting dynamic on a roster this deep: young players improve, believe they have earned minutes, and sometimes the established rotation does not make room as quickly as they expect.
Christian Anderson, the No. 18 pick in this year's draft, may have a tougher time finding immediate minutes in such a crowded guard group. We are more intrigued by Hannes Steinbach, whom Charlotte selected 14th overall. The 6-foot-11 German forward-center was excellent in his lone season at Washington, averaging 18.5 points and a Big Ten-leading 11.8 rebounds while shooting 57.7% from the field. He recorded 22 double-doubles, was named All-Big Ten and made the conference's All-Freshman team. Before college, Steinbach had already played professionally in Germany and helped his country win its first U18 EuroBasket gold medal.
We liked Steinbach before the draft, and he gave us more to like in Summer League. He had games of 27 points and 15 rebounds and 22 points and 11 rebounds in Las Vegas. If he proves ready for regular NBA minutes immediately, Charlotte could be better than our 33-win projection because he gives them another legitimate option at the four or five.
There is still a lot of talent in Charlotte. Knueppel and Miller could become one of the better young wing combinations in the league. White is a legitimate starting guard. McNeeley and Steinbach give Charlotte more young upside than the projected main ten even shows.
But Ball and Bridges combined for a lot of shot creation, and losing both in the same offseason is a substantial offensive change. Charlotte may ultimately be better positioned for the future because of the draft capital it accumulated, but we are not convinced that the 2026-27 version of the team will be better than the one that won 44 games last season.
Vegas has Charlotte at 37.5 wins.
We have the Hornets at 34.
That puts Charlotte at No. 23 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
