The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#22 — Chicago Bulls
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 34-48
Vegas Over/Under: 27.5 winsWe are more optimistic about the Chicago Bulls than Vegas is, and the biggest reason is the projected main-five. Josh Giddey, Norman Powell, Matas Buzelis, Caleb Wilson (photo below) and Nic Claxton give Chicago a starting group that we think can be pretty darn efficient offensively. The defense is another story. Our projection has the Bulls' main-five defense in the lower tier of the NBA, while the projected bench is roughly middle-of-the-pack offensively and also below average defensively. That is probably what keeps Chicago from climbing much higher in these rankings, but there is enough scoring and overall efficiency in the starting lineup for us to believe the Bulls can improve on last season's 31-51 record.
If we were Bulls fans, Wilson would be the player we would be most excited about. Chicago selected Caleb Wilson fourth overall after his freshman season at North Carolina, and Hoop Obsession had Wilson No. 1 on our 2026 Draft board. That tells you how strongly we feel about him. In 24 games at North Carolina, Wilson averaged 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 57.8% from the field before a fractured thumb ended his season. His spectacular athleticism jumps off the screen, but what we especially like is how many different ways that athleticism can impact winning. He can defend multiple positions, protect the rim from the weak side, run the floor, finish above the rim and create havoc without needing the ball. We also believe he will eventually be a better shooter than his college three-point percentage suggested.
There is a personality component to our belief in Wilson, too. Everything we have seen suggests a competitive, team-oriented player who should be easy for teammates and the city of Chicago to embrace. He does not need to dominate possessions to make an impact, and playing next to Giddey should create plenty of opportunities for him in transition and around the basket while the rest of his offensive game develops.
We are also very interested in the continued growth of Buzelis. He is still young, and the physical development matters. Buzelis has always had the athleticism and skill to attack closeouts and get to the basket, but as he becomes stronger, some of those drives that previously ended with him getting knocked off his line should start ending with him overpowering defenders. That could be an important next step. Giddey is already a very solid NBA creator, while Powell gives Chicago something every team needs: a dependable professional scorer. Powell has gotten buckets at every stop of his career, and his ability to create efficient offense should take some pressure off Chicago's younger players.
Claxton rounds out the projected starting group and gives the Bulls a legitimate NBA center who can finish efficiently around the basket and protect the rim. Between Claxton and Zach Collins, Chicago at least has two experienced bigs capable of playing real minutes. If they do not kill each other competing for those minutes, the Bulls should have some flexibility in how they handle the center position.
Our projected second-five is Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Leonard Miller and Jalen Smith. That is where some of our concern begins. We continue to wonder about Okoro and Williams because neither has consistently reached the efficiency level we want from a rotation player. Okoro is especially interesting because his reputation is built around defense, yet his defensive numbers last season were poor (minus 3.2 DDiff). Williams has simply never been an efficient NBA player, and at some point the conversation has to move beyond potential. The physical tools remain obvious, but he continues to get opportunities without consistently producing at the level we would want.
Miller is a different case. We remain intrigued because efficiency has generally not been his problem. He was buried for much of his time in Minnesota, but after coming to Chicago he finally began getting more of an opportunity to show whether his production can translate into a regular NBA role. He is still young enough to take another step, and this feels like the kind of roster where he should get a legitimate chance.
There are several other players fighting for those last rotation spots. Rob Dillingham could force his way into the mix if his offense becomes too useful to ignore. Dailyn Swain has enough versatility to earn minutes eventually, while Noa Essengue appears to be farther away from a dependable role.
The other major change is on the sideline. Tiago Splitter replaces Billy Donovan after taking over for Chauncey Billups in Portland last season. Splitter now inherits a Bulls roster that sits somewhere between development and trying to win now. That background could serve him well because Chicago has a lot of plausible rotation options, and sorting out which combinations actually work will be one of his biggest jobs.
One thing we hope changes under Splitter is Chicago's obsession with speed. According to NBA.com's regular-season numbers, the Bulls played at the third-fastest pace in the league last season, behind only Miami and Utah, but won just 31 games. We have made our feelings about pace pretty clear: playing faster does not automatically make a basketball team better. Chicago's problem was not that it needed even more possessions. It needed to make better use of them and defend more effectively.
Defense remains the biggest concern with this team. Wilson should help immediately on that end, Claxton gives them some rim protection, and Okoro has a history of being useful defensively even if last season's numbers were disappointing. But the overall defensive projection still lands in the lower tier, and the second unit does not offer an obvious solution. If Splitter can find combinations that defend at even an average NBA level, we think Chicago has enough offensive efficiency to surprise people.
There is simply more here that we like than the 27.5-win Vegas number suggests. Wilson has a chance to become a foundational player. Buzelis appears ready for another step. Giddey gives them size and playmaking at point guard. Powell will get buckets.
Vegas has Chicago at 27.5 wins.
We have the Bulls at 34.
That puts Chicago at No. 22 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
