The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#21 — Indiana Pacers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 35-47
Vegas Over/Under: 44.5 winsThe Indiana Pacers are one of the teams where we are clearly swimming against the current. Vegas has them at 44.5 wins, and we understand the optimism. Tyrese Haliburton should be back, Ivica Zubac has been added to the middle, and this is still a franchise that was knocking on the door of a championship not long ago.
But we keep coming back to the same thing: defense is literally half the game.
Haliburton's return is obviously enormous. He ruptured his right Achilles tendon in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals against Oklahoma City, underwent surgery shortly afterward, and missed the entire 2025-26 season. Indiana has been cautious throughout the rehab process, but the expectation is that he will be ready to return for 2026-27. That alone should dramatically improve an offense that had to function without one of the league's best decision-makers for an entire season. Haliburton's passing, pace control and ability to create quality shots without dominating the ball are foundational to everything Indiana wants to do.
The Pacers also made a significant move for Zubac, acquiring him from the Clippers during last season. He gives Indiana real size, screening, rebounding and efficient finishing around the basket. We understand why people like the fit. The problem is that Ivica Zubac has never been somebody we view as a high-end defensive center, and that matters for a team that already has concerns on that end.
Our projected main-five is Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam (photo above) and Zubac. Offensively, there is plenty to like. Haliburton can orchestrate. Nembhard is capable with the ball. Nesmith can shoot. Siakam remains a dependable scorer and secondary creator. Zubac is efficient inside. That group should be able to score.
The defensive projection is where we get uneasy. Indiana finished 24th in defensive rating last season, and we do not see an obvious personnel change that suddenly turns them into a top-half defensive team. Siakam is the only plus-defender in the main five. Zubac gives them size, but not the kind of mobility or defensive versatility that erases mistakes behind the perimeter. There are too many spots where we see opponents being able to create advantages.
The projected second-five is Ben Sheppard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin and Jay Huff. Oubre comes over from Philadelphia and gives the Pacers another scoring wing with length, while Walker remains one of the players Indiana badly needs to take another step. Toppin can score efficiently and run the floor, and Huff gives them another true big. There is enough depth here to field competent lineups, but we still see the same larger issue: we trust the offense more than the defense.
T.J. McConnell will obviously have a role as well. He remains one of the more dependable backup point guards in the league and gives Indiana a different kind of energy when Haliburton sits. Beyond that, though, we are less excited about the deeper portion of the roster. Johnny Furphy continues to get mentioned as a possible breakout candidate, but at some point the breakout has to actually happen. Rookie Braden Smith has enough skill and feel to be interesting, while Kobe Brown and Larry Nance Jr. give the Pacers additional depth, but we do not see a huge amount of hidden upside in the deep bench.
The loss of Bennedict Mathurin also matters more to us than it may to some projections. We are not trying to turn Mathurin into a savior or suggest that losing him alone costs Indiana a bunch of wins. But he brought physicality, competitiveness and an edge that this roster could use. He attacked the basket, absorbed contact and played with a level of determination that helped give Indiana some toughness. The Pacers still have plenty of skill, but we think they will miss that element.
Rebounding is another reason we are skeptical. Indiana finished 29th out of 30 teams in rebounding percentage last season. Zubac should help, no question, but one center does not solve a team-wide problem by himself. Rebounding is about positioning, physicality and collective effort, and the Pacers were one of the worst teams in the league at finishing defensive possessions with the ball.
There is also a natural tendency to look back at Indiana's Finals run and assume that getting Haliburton back means they are close to returning to that level. We are not ready to make that leap. Haliburton is coming off one of the most serious injuries a basketball player can suffer. Even if he is medically cleared and available, there is no guarantee he immediately looks exactly like the pre-injury version of himself. Achilles recoveries can be excellent now, but the first season back can still involve uneven stretches, workload management and some loss of explosiveness or confidence.
That does not mean we are pessimistic about Haliburton himself. Quite the opposite. We think his intelligence, shooting and passing give him a better chance than most players to remain highly effective even if he loses a little burst. The question is whether Indiana has enough around him defensively to get back into the upper tier of the East.
We think the offense will be good. We think Haliburton's return matters enormously. We think Siakam is still productive, Zubac improves their size, and the Pacers have enough depth to avoid falling apart when the starters sit.
But 44.5 wins asks us to believe the defense improves significantly, the rebounding problem is largely solved, and Haliburton comes back at a very high level right away.
That is too much for us in a vastly improved Eastern Conference.
Vegas has Indiana at 44.5 wins.
We have the Pacers at 35.
That puts Indiana at No. 21 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
