The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#20 — Memphis Grizzlies
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 36-46
Vegas Over/Under: 28.5 winsWe are considerably more optimistic about Memphis than Vegas is, but our projection comes with one major condition: Zach Edey (photo below) has to be healthy enough to play a real role.
When Edey is on the floor, he changes the Grizzlies defensively and gives them one of the most efficient centers in the NBA. Last season he ranked seventh among centers in HOC and led all five-men in our DDiff category. That kind of defensive impact is extremely difficult to replace, especially from a player who also scores efficiently around the basket and eats up space on the glass.
The problem is dependability. Edey played only 11 games last season after a complicated run of injuries to his left ankle. He originally underwent surgery in June 2025 to stabilize the lateral side of the ankle, later developed a stress reaction, and ultimately needed another surgery in March 2026 after ongoing discomfort and talar bone stress were traced to laxity on the medial side. He also underwent a procedure on his left elbow later that month. Memphis said after both procedures that he was expected to make a full recovery before the 2026-27 season, and NBA.com still listed him this week among the notable players expected back this season.
That is encouraging, but we are not treating his health as a given. Edey has now dealt with the same ankle repeatedly, and at 7-foot-3 and more than 300 pounds, every lower-body issue deserves attention. He also still has areas of his game to improve. He needs to see teammates better when defenses collapse and improve an assist-to-turnover ratio that has been in negative territory through his first two NBA seasons. Still, if Edey can stay on the floor, his combination of size, efficiency and defensive impact gives Memphis a major advantage.
The other huge reason for our optimism is Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 pick in the draft. We viewed Boozer, along with Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors), as one of the most plug-and-play ready players coming out of college, and we think Boozer has a chance to slot in as a high-level NBA power forward almost immediately.
That opinion is not based on projection alone. Boozer averaged 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists at Duke while shooting 55.6% from the field and 39.1% from three. He became just the fifth freshman to sweep consensus National Player of the Year honors and also won ACC Player of the Year and ACC Rookie of the Year. NBA.com noted that he became the first freshman or sophomore since Larry Bird in 1976-77 to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in a season.
We like almost everything about the fit next to Edey. Boozer can rebound, shoot, pass and make decisions without needing to dominate the ball. He is strong enough to play through contact and skilled enough to punish teams that leave him alone on the perimeter. If the transition is as smooth as we expect, Memphis could have one of the more interesting young frontcourts in basketball.
The Grizzlies are clearly entering a new era. Jaren Jackson Jr. was traded to Utah in February for a package that included Walter Clayton Jr., Taylor Hendricks and three future first-round picks. Then Ja Morant was dealt to Portland in June for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray.
Grant may be overpaid relative to his contract, but that does not mean he is a bad player. He is still an experienced NBA forward who can score and gives Memphis another legitimate offensive option. Put Grant next to Boozer and Edey and suddenly this is a very large, skilled front line.
Our projected main-five is unusual because it does not include a true point guard. We currently have Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Grant, Boozer and Edey as the five players we project to log the most minutes over the course of the season. That is an important distinction when we use the term main-five. We are not necessarily projecting a traditional one-through-five starting lineup; we are projecting the five players who, by season's end, we believe will have accumulated the most meaningful minutes.
There is an obvious issue with that group: somebody has to run the offense. Wells has already shown that he belongs in a major role, and we like Coward quite a bit as a second-year wing, but neither is a natural point guard. That creates one of the biggest questions on the roster.
The funny thing is Memphis does not lack point guards. It may actually have too many.
Our projected second-five currently includes Walter Clayton Jr., Cam Spencer, Ty Jerome, Taylor Hendricks and Isaiah Stewart. Jerome is the player who could change our outlook most quickly. If Memphis decides he is its primary point guard and gives him main-five minutes, we could become even more bullish on this team. He is efficient, can shoot and has shown that he can organize an NBA offense without turning every possession into a high-usage adventure.
The guard traffic jam goes well beyond that group. Scotty Pippen Jr. has already shown that he belongs in the NBA. Javon Small did a lot of good things as a rookie and remains a player we like. Memphis also acquired D'Angelo Russell this summer, adding yet another experienced ball-handler to an already crowded backcourt. Russell comes over from Washington in the six-team deal that also brought Stewart to Memphis.
That depth makes Memphis an obvious team for other front offices to call. There simply may not be enough guard minutes available for everybody. If another team is looking for a capable backup or developmental point guard, the Grizzlies are one of the first rosters we would examine.
The depth does not stop there. GG Jackson is still only 21, continues to improve and, in our opinion, should absolutely be part of an NBA team's plans going forward. Quinten Post comes over from Golden State and gives them another skilled 7-footer. Kris Murray comes from Portland. Stewart brings toughness and interior defense, and Hendricks still has enough length and shooting potential to make us interested.
Then there is Karim Lopez, the No. 21 pick in the draft. We are not sure how much he will play as a rookie, particularly with so many established players ahead of him, but Memphis clearly viewed him as a significant developmental piece. The Grizzlies traded down twice in the first round before landing Lopez and accumulated additional future assets in the process.
The Grizzlies went only 25-57 last season, but that record came during an injury-ravaged year in which 33 different players appeared for Memphis and only three played more than 55 games. Edey played 11. Morant played 20 before his eventual departure. That context matters when projecting forward.
This roster is now very different, and we actually like the direction. Boozer looks ready to help immediately. Edey has already shown that his presence changes the defense. Grant is a proven scorer. Wells and Coward give them useful young wings, and the roster is deep enough that players we genuinely like may struggle just to crack the main ten.
There is even a fallback if Edey's health becomes a problem. Memphis could use Boozer as a smaller five for stretches and surround him with Hendricks, GG Jackson or Grant. Stewart can handle physical center minutes. Post gives them another true big. That would not replace what Edey provides defensively, but it means an Edey absence would not completely destroy the frontcourt.
The biggest concern remains point guard organization. The Grizzlies have a lot of guards, but we are not sure yet who Tuomas Iisalo will trust to run the team when games matter. If Jerome grabs that role, or if Clayton, Pippen or Small clearly separates from the pack, one of our biggest questions starts disappearing.
Vegas has Memphis at 28.5 wins.
We have the Grizzlies at 36.
That puts Memphis at No. 20 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
