The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#19 — Washington Wizards
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 36-46
Vegas Over/Under: 35.5 winsThere may not be a more contradictory team in this section of our rankings than the Washington Wizards. From an efficiency standpoint, we think the projected main-five has a chance to be very good offensively. Defensively, however, both the starters and the second unit project among the weakest groups in the NBA. That makes Washington fascinating, because there is now enough talent to score with just about anybody, but we are not convinced there are enough dependable defenders to consistently finish possessions at the other end.
Obviously, the main attraction is AJ Dybantsa (photo below), the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Washington landed one of the most coveted prospects in recent years after Dybantsa led the nation in scoring at BYU with 25.5 points per game while adding 6.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He shot 51.0% from the field, led the country in total points, field goals made and free throws made, and became the first player in Big 12 history to post a 30-point triple-double. At 6-foot-9 with advanced shot creation, explosive athleticism and the ability to generate offense from multiple levels, he entered the draft looking like a player capable of eventually becoming the centerpiece of an NBA franchise.
That does not mean Dybantsa arrives without questions. His three-point shot remains a work in progress after he made 33.1% at BYU, and our numbers did not view him as a positive defender in college. He has the size, lateral movement and physical tools to eventually become very good on that end, but tools and production are not the same thing. Washington will be asking a 19-year-old rookie to carry a significant offensive burden, and it would be asking a lot for him to simultaneously become an impact NBA defender from day-one.
Our projected main-five is Trae Young, Kyshawn George, Dybantsa, Anthony Davis and Deandre Ayton. Offensively, there is a lot to like. Young remains an elite creator and passer, George continues to improve rapidly from an efficiency standpoint, and Dybantsa gives the Wizards another player who can create his own offense rather than simply waiting for someone else to manufacture a shot. Davis and Ayton give Washington size and finishing ability around the basket.
George is particularly interesting because his development has begun to move beyond the idea of simply being a young prospect with tools. He is becoming more efficient, and Washington needs exactly that type of growth from the players it drafted during the early stages of this rebuild. If George can continue moving in that direction while Dybantsa immediately provides high-level scoring, the Wizards should look dramatically different offensively from the team that struggled last season.
The Wizards were second-to-last in offensive rating and dead last in defensive rating last season. This was one of the NBA's worst teams at both ends.
Young should make the offense substantially better. The defense is another matter. He remains one of the most difficult point guards in the league to build a high-level defense around, particularly at the point of attack. Davis has historically been an elite defender and can erase plenty of mistakes behind him, but it is hard to ask one 33-year-old big man to cover for every weakness in a lineup.
Availability is also becoming impossible to ignore with Davis. He played only 20 games last season after appearing in 51 the year before, meaning he has played just 71 regular-season games over the last two seasons combined. If Washington gets 65 or 70 games from a healthy Davis, this ranking could end up looking conservative. If he misses another large chunk of the season, the Wizards immediately become much younger and considerably more vulnerable defensively.
The center position is another area where our projection could change. We currently have Ayton in the main-five, but Alex Sarr could easily play more minutes and might ultimately make more sense alongside Davis. Sarr improved significantly in his second season, but the concern now is health. He underwent foot surgery this summer, and Washington has indicated that he is expected back in time for training camp. Foot injuries involving 7-footers always make us cautious, so we will want to see how he moves before assuming he is completely unaffected.
Our projected second-five is Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Bilal Coulibaly and Sarr. There is talent all over that group, but there is also an enormous amount of youth.
That youth is one reason we are skeptical of a massive jump in the standings. Carrington, Johnson, Riley and Dybantsa are all talented, but young players usually make young-player mistakes. They miss rotations, die on screens, lose shooters, foul at the wrong times and have nights where their offensive decision-making disappears. Washington now has enough offensive talent to survive some of those mistakes. We are less convinced it has enough defense to survive them consistently.
There are also veteran players who could complicate the projected main ten. Khris Middleton remains on the roster and could certainly earn meaningful minutes if healthy. Tristan Vukcevic has enough skill to work his way into the rotation, while Justin Champagnie is somebody we continue to like quite a bit. Champagnie has produced when given opportunities and, in our view, deserves a legitimate chance to be part of the main ten. Whether he actually gets that opportunity is another question.
Washington has invested significant draft capital in Carrington, Johnson, Riley, Coulibaly, Sarr and now Dybantsa. Teams understandably want to see those investments develop, and sometimes that means a productive player like Champagnie gets squeezed. We would rather see the best players earn the minutes, regardless of draft position or organizational politics.
That is why this Wizards season may ultimately come down to balancing development with winning. There is enough veteran talent there now that Washington should not approach the season like a pure rebuilding team. At the same time, Washington cannot ignore defensive performance simply because several young players need developmental minutes.
There is real reason for optimism. Dybantsa gives the franchise the kind of elite prospect it has lacked for years, and his combination of size, shot creation and scoring production gives the Wizards a legitimate potential franchise player. The offense should improve significantly, and there are enough young pieces here for Washington to be genuinely interesting again.
But the defensive math still bothers us. Davis may be the one established high-level defender capable of tying it all together, but history says it is dangerous to build a projection that assumes he will be available for 70-plus games.
The Wizards should be much more entertaining, and they should be considerably better offensively than the team we watched last season. We simply think the defense will keep the improvement from being as dramatic as the names on the roster might initially suggest.
Vegas has Washington at 35.5 wins.
We have the Wizards at 36.
That puts Washington at No. 19 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
