The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#7 — Cleveland Cavaliers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 50-32
Vegas Over/Under: 47.5 winsWe really like Cleveland's projected main-five. In fact, the only main-five we currently have rated ahead of it from an overall efficiency standpoint is Philadelphia's.
Our projected group is Donovan Mitchell (photo below), James Harden, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That is a really good five. There is shot creation, playmaking, size, rebounding, interior scoring and enough versatility to create problems in a lot of different ways.
Mitchell remains one of the best guards in the league, while Harden gives Cleveland another high-level creator who can organize an offense, get to the line and create shots for other people. Harden is now 37, so there is always going to be some concern about how much of his prime game remains, but for a regular-season projection we still trust him quite a bit. Cleveland re-signed him this offseason, and we expect him to remain a major part of what they do offensively.
The big addition to the main-five is Peyton Watson, who came over from Denver in the five-team sign-and-trade that sent Max Strus to the Clippers and Dennis Schröder to Charlotte. Watson averaged 14.6 points and 4.9 rebounds last season and has developed enough offensively that we think he is a bonafide starter. Watson gives Cleveland another long, athletic defender without completely sacrificing offense. Most importantly, he is still getting better.
There is one spot where we could easily be wrong, though. Jaylon Tyson has a legitimate chance to play more total minutes than Watson. Tyson showed enough last season that it would not surprise us if he eventually forces his way into the main-five. For now, we are giving Watson the edge because of the amount Cleveland invested to get him.
Mobley and Allen remain the foundation of the frontcourt. Mobley gives Cleveland one of the most versatile defensive bigs in the NBA, while Allen remains an efficient finisher, rebounder and rim protector. Those two give the Cavaliers size and interior efficiency without needing to dominate the basketball.
That is why we see very little weakness in the main-five.
Our projected second-five is Sam Merrill, Craig Porter Jr., Tyson, Mario Hezonja and Nae'Qwan Tomlin. That group is not as strong as the main-five, but there are still enough useful pieces to keep Cleveland from falling apart when the stars sit.
Hezonja is one of the more interesting stories on the roster. He is returning to the NBA after six seasons overseas. His last NBA season was 2019-20 with Portland, after previous stops in Orlando and New York. Hezonja then played for Panathinaikos, UNICS Kazan and Real Madrid before signing with Cleveland this summer.
He is also returning as a much more accomplished international player than the one who left. Hezonja spent the last four seasons with Real Madrid, helped the club win the EuroLeague title in 2023, and was named Liga ACB MVP for the 2025-26 season after averaging 17.5 points and 4.9 rebounds. At 31, he gives Cleveland experience, size and another shooter on the wing. We are not expecting him to become a major star after six years away from the league, but he has become a very good professional player overseas, and that makes him an interesting rotation piece rather than just a nostalgia signing.
Merrill gives Cleveland shooting, Porter gives them another ball-handler, and Tomlin provides size and athleticism. Tyson may ultimately be the best player in this group if he does not crack the main-five.
The rookie who could alter this projection is Meleek Thomas. Cleveland selected him 34th overall after one season at Arkansas, where he averaged 15.7 points and shot 41.6% from three. Then he went to Las Vegas and led the entire Summer League in scoring at 27.3 points per game.
We loved what Thomas showed in July. The scoring looked natural, the confidence was obvious, and he did not look overwhelmed by the jump in competition. But this is where we come back to one of our core beliefs: qualifying isn't racing. Summer League matters more to us than a choreographed workout, but it still is not the same thing as playing meaningful NBA games against veteran rotations. Cleveland is trying to win now, and Kenny Atkinson may not be in a hurry to hand major minutes to a 20-year-old rookie.
Still, Thomas was good enough that we cannot simply dismiss the possibility. If he carries that confidence into training camp and preseason, he could push somebody out of the projected second-five.
Thomas Bryant is another player who could work his way into the main-ten. Cleveland brought him back on a one-year deal, and he gives them a proven backup center who can provide scoring and size when Allen or Mobley sit. Tyrese Proctor is another deeper guard option, while Cleveland also recently signed Khalifa Diop to add more frontcourt depth.
One of the more interesting preseason notes is that Cleveland will hold training camp in Spain. The Cavaliers are scheduled to train from September 30 through October 5 at The Embassy in Fuengirola, Malaga, a high-performance basketball facility founded by former Spanish players Berni Rodriguez and Jose Manuel Calderon.
And that brings us to the biggest question we have about Cleveland. Are they actually a championship team?
We think they are going to win a lot of regular-season games. Cleveland went 52-30 last season, finished sixth in offensive rating and reached the Eastern Conference Finals. With Mitchell, Harden, Mobley, Allen and Watson, the offense should again be one of the better units in basketball.
The defense is where we stop short.
Last season Cleveland finished 15th in defensive rating at 115.1. That is almost exactly how we view them entering this season: somewhere around the middle of the league defensively. Mobley and Allen are excellent defenders. Watson helps. Mitchell competes. But Harden is not someone we are counting on to raise the defensive ceiling, and we do not see enough overall defensive dominance to put Cleveland in the same championship tier as the very best teams.
We still have questions about Harden in the postseason too. That is not particularly relevant to a forecast centered on regular-season wins, and Harden has been an enormously productive regular-season player for a very long time. But once the playoffs begin and possessions tighten, we are less confident in Cleveland than we are in some of the teams still ahead of them.
For 82 games, though, we think this roster is excellent.
Vegas has Cleveland at 47.5 wins.
We have the Cavaliers at 50.
That puts Cleveland at No. 7 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
