The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#6 — Los Angeles Lakers
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 50-32
Vegas Over/Under: 46.5 winsThe post-LeBron version of the Los Angeles Lakers is obviously going to look different, but we still think the top of the roster is excellent. In fact, from an efficiency standpoint, we believe the Lakers' projected main-five has a legitimate argument as one of the three best groups in the NBA.
Our projected main-five is Luka Doncic (photo below), Quentin Grimes, Austin Reaves, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Walker Kessler. There is a lot to like there offensively, even if the defense overall looks closer to average than elite. Doncic remains one of the most special offensive players in basketball, and with LeBron now in Philadelphia, this becomes even more clearly his team.
Reaves is a huge part of why we are optimistic. We think he still gets overlooked for how good he has become. Last season provided several stretches where injuries to teammates forced him into a much bigger offensive role, and he showed that he could handle it. He is efficient, skilled, comfortable with the ball, and capable of taking on considerably more responsibility than he had earlier in his career. We are expecting a big season from him.
Grimes gives the Lakers another useful two-way guard who can defend at the point of attack, shoot and attack closeouts. Mamukelashvili gives them a skilled frontcourt player who can space the floor and pass, which is an intriguing fit next to Doncic. The Lakers signed both Grimes and Mamukelashvili as part of a major offseason reshaping around Luka and Reaves.
Kessler may be the most important new piece defensively. He played only five games for Utah last season after suffering a torn labrum in his left shoulder and then undergoing season-ending surgery in November. The Lakers still thought enough of him to trade two unprotected first-round picks and two pick swaps to Utah, then commit to a four-year deal.
Before the injury, Kessler had already established himself as one of the better young defensive centers in the league. In 2024-25 he averaged 11.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks while shooting 66.3% from the field. We would probably describe him as above average rather than elite from an overall center-efficiency standpoint, but his value to this particular Lakers roster goes beyond that. Los Angeles finished 20th in defensive rating last season. If they are going to win 50 games again without LeBron, Kessler has to help move that defense closer to the middle of the league or better.
Our projected second-five is Collin Sexton, Jaden Hardy, Matisse Thybulle, Jake LaRavia and Jarred Vanderbilt. There are some useful players there, but this is the part of the roster that keeps us from being even more bullish. From an offensive-efficiency standpoint, we do not think this is a particularly strong second-five, and defensively we see it somewhere around the middle to lower half of the league.
Sexton is the exception offensively. He remains an efficient scorer and gives the Lakers a legitimate high-level guard coming off the bench. Whether you call him a point guard or simply a guard, he can create his own offense and provide scoring when Doncic or Reaves sits.
Hardy is one of the harder players to project. He is now entering his fifth NBA season, having been drafted 37th overall in 2022. He spent his first three seasons in Dallas before playing last year in Washington, where he averaged 9.2 points in 57 games and shot 39.7% from three. The Lakers acquired him from Washington in the trade that sent Deandre Ayton to the Wizards.
That is why we think Hardy has a legitimate chance to be the second shooting guard in the rotation. He is still only 24, he has four years of NBA experience behind him, and he has already shown that he can make shots at this level. He does not need to become a creator on the level of Doncic or Reaves. If Hardy can provide efficient perimeter scoring in 15-to-20-minute stretches, that may be enough to keep him ahead of some of the younger options.
The other side of the second-five is defense. We think extremely highly of Thybulle. At his best, he is one of the best wing defenders in basketball, period. Vanderbilt also gives the Lakers size and defensive versatility, while LaRavia provides another experienced forward who can play multiple roles. That group should be able to defend, but the offensive fit can get awkward if too many limited shooters are on the floor at the same time.
The deeper roster has several players who could change our main-ten projection. Adou Thiero is one of our favorites. He is physical, athletic, tough and does enough different things that we could absolutely see a pathway for him to crack the rotation. He is the kind of jack-of-all-trades player who can earn minutes simply by competing and helping defensively.
Ziaire Williams is another former first-round pick, but at this point we are still waiting for the efficiency to arrive. The same applies to Dalton Knecht. The shooting pedigree is there, but it still has not translated consistently enough for us to automatically put him in the main-ten.
Cameron Carr is the rookie who could make the biggest immediate push. The Lakers acquired the No. 24 pick from New York on draft night, and Carr is an intriguing combination of shooting, athleticism and size. He averaged 18.9 points at Baylor while shooting 49% from the field and 37% from three, and he was one of the better wing shot-blockers in the country. We absolutely believe he can score. The question is whether JJ Redick will trust a rookie enough to put him ahead of Hardy or some of the other veteran options right away.
That is where our current second-five projection could change. If Carr looks ready immediately, Hardy may be the player most vulnerable to sliding outside the top ten in season-long minutes. On the other hand, Hardy has already been through four NBA seasons and has shown he can make threes against NBA defenses, so we are giving experience the edge for now.
Kevon Looney gives the Lakers exactly what you expect: veteran leadership, professionalism, rebounding and a player who understands how to help a team without needing the basketball. He may not play huge minutes with Kessler and Mamukelashvili ahead of him, but he is an excellent insurance policy and an ideal veteran to have around a team going through a major identity shift.
Bronny James remains deeper in the guard rotation, and Los Angeles has enough competition now that every minute will have to be earned.
The biggest question is how all of this looks without LeBron. The Lakers won 53 games last season and played at the 22nd-fastest pace in the NBA. That is another reminder that there is nothing inherently magical about playing fast. They were one of the better teams in the league while playing in the slowest third by pace.
This year, though, the offensive structure changes dramatically. Doncic is clearly the hub. Reaves should have more responsibility. Grimes, Mamukelashvili and Kessler all bring different strengths than the players who occupied those roles last season. There may be an adjustment period while the Lakers figure out how possessions are distributed and how the offense flows without LeBron's decision-making.
The defense is what ultimately keeps us from putting Los Angeles even higher. The Lakers were 20th in defensive rating last season, and while Kessler and Thybulle can help, this is not a roster we project as an elite defensive team. The second-five offense is also not particularly strong, so a lot of this forecast depends on the main-five being as good as we think it can be.
Vegas has the Lakers at 46.5 wins.
We have Los Angeles at 50.
That puts the Lakers at No. 6 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
