The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#5 — Denver Nuggets
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 51-31
Vegas Over/Under: 49.5 winsThe Denver Nuggets remain one of the easiest teams in the league to understand. Their projected main-five is excellent, and we have it among the five best in the NBA from an overall efficiency standpoint. The problem is that the defense, both in the main-five and especially in the second-five, does not look nearly as impressive.
Our projected main-five is Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic (photo below). That is a group capable of producing elite offense night after night, and we do not have to speculate much about whether Denver's system works. The Nuggets finished last season with the best offensive rating in the NBA at 122.6, went 54-28, and posted the league's best assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.25-to-1. They did all of that while playing at only the 21st-fastest pace, another reminder that efficiency and execution matter a lot more to us than simply trying to play fast.
Jokic remains the reason everything works. His efficiency is ridiculous, but even that undersells how much he changes the geometry of a basketball court. There are passes he sees that other centers do not see, angles he creates that other players cannot create, and possessions where Denver gets a great shot simply because he forces every defender to make a difficult decision. There are very few players in the league we would call true superstars. Jokic is obviously one of them.
Murray is the perfect backcourt partner for him, and he is coming off the best regular season of his career. That combination alone gives Denver one of the strongest point guard-center pairings in the NBA. If you have a really good point guard paired with an elite offensive center who can also function as one of the best passers in basketball, you can go a long way in the NBA.
Braun and Johnson fit well around them because neither requires the offense to revolve around him. Braun gives Denver athleticism, cutting and defense, while Johnson provides shooting and positional size. Gordon remains one of the most important connective pieces on the roster because of his physicality, screening, cutting and ability to defend multiple positions.
The concern with Gordon is durability. He dealt with repeated hamstring and calf issues last season, missed time during the regular season and then was limited again in the playoffs by left calf tightness. He missed Games 3, 5 and 6 of Denver's first-round series against Minnesota. If he is healthy enough to finish among Denver's five highest-minute players, our projection makes sense. If those soft-tissue problems continue, the main-five could look a little different by the end of the season.
Our projected second-five is Bruce Brown, DeMar DeRozan, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones and Marvin Bagley III. Offensively, we see that group around the middle of the league. Defensively, we are less enthusiastic.
DeRozan is the obvious headline. He comes over from Sacramento and gives Denver a veteran scorer who can still manufacture offense late in games. We would expect him to close plenty of close contests because his mid-range game remains one of the most reliable late-clock weapons in the league. When possessions slow down and a team needs somebody to get to a comfortable spot and make a contested shot, DeRozan still has real value.
The tradeoff is defense. DeRozan does not improve the Nuggets much at that end, and that matters on a team that already finished 21st in defensive rating last season. For us, that is the biggest reason Denver sits fifth in our rankings rather than first or second. The offense can be championship-caliber. The defense is not there yet.
Bagley is a signing we like more than the general perception of him might suggest. He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, selected by Sacramento out of Duke, so he has spent much of his career being judged against the expectations attached to that draft slot. That has probably obscured the fact that he has been a productive and increasingly efficient NBA player in recent years.
Last season, Bagley averaged 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds in just 20 minutes per game while shooting 61.8% from the field. For a reserve big, that is useful production. He can finish around the basket, and he gives Denver another efficient frontcourt option behind Jokic and Gordon.
Brown gives the group familiarity with Denver's system, while Strawther and Jones provide additional wing depth. We do not think this second-five is a disaster by any means. We just do not see it as a major advantage compared with the best benches in the league, particularly on defense.
The loss of Peyton Watson matters too. Watson had clearly become one of Denver's most promising young players before leaving for Cleveland. That is where the roster feels a little older and less exciting developmentally. DeRozan and Bagley are capable NBA players and should help this season, but they do not replace the sense that Watson was still ascending. Nuggets fans could reasonably look at Watson and imagine what he might become in two or three years. That piece is gone now.
There are still younger players worth watching. Trevon Brazile is one of them, and we liked what he showed in college enough to think he has a chance to work his way into the rotation. Bryce Hopkins is another player we like because of how hard he plays, although on a veteran team trying to contend immediately, he may not get enough opportunity in year-one to finish among Denver's ten highest-minute players.
DaRon Holmes II is still trying to regain the developmental momentum he lost almost immediately after being drafted. Holmes tore his right Achilles tendon in Denver's first game of the 2024 Las Vegas Summer League and underwent surgery a few days later, costing him his entire rookie season. That was a brutal way to begin an NBA career, and even now there is still some catching up to do.
Tyus Jones gives Denver another experienced point guard option deeper in the rotation, which is never a bad thing on a team built around decision-making and ball security. But we do not want to get too far into the back of the roster because the story of this team remains the same.
Jokic and Murray can carry a great offense.
That offense was No. 1 in the NBA last season. The Nuggets also led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio, and their 54 wins came while playing in the bottom third of the league in pace. That is exactly the kind of basketball profile we trust: efficient possessions, elite decision-making and a center who makes everyone around him better.
What keeps us from putting Denver in the championship tier is the other end of the floor. The Nuggets were 21st defensively last season, and we do not think the additions of DeRozan and Bagley solve that. Watson's departure may actually make the defensive ceiling a little lower. Gordon being healthy helps enormously, but even at full strength this does not look like one of the league's elite defensive rosters.
We still think they are very good.
Vegas has Denver at 49.5 wins.
We have the Nuggets at 51.
That puts Denver at No. 5 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
