The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#4 — Detroit Pistons
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 53-29
Vegas Over/Under: 49.5 winsThe Detroit Pistons won 60 games last season, finished with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA at 108.9, and posted a plus 8.4 net rating. So even though we are projecting a seven-win drop, this is still a team we believe belongs firmly in the league's upper tier. The biggest reason is defense. We have both Detroit's projected main-five and second-five rated among the top three defensive groups in the NBA.
Our projected main-five is Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Jalen Duren (photo below). That is a really good group, and Cunningham and Duren give Detroit the kind of point guard-center combination we tend to trust. Cade is the star and offensive organizer, while Duren has become one of the better young centers in the league. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds last season and earned third-team All-NBA honors.
The one complication is that Duren is still a restricted free agent. Detroit and Duren remain far apart in negotiations, with reports indicating Duren is seeking more than $40 million annually while the Pistons have been around $35 million per year on a five-year offer. Detroit has reportedly shown little interest in sign-and-trade possibilities, which reinforces our assumption that he ultimately remains a Piston.
That situation is worth monitoring because Duren is simply too important to this roster to treat casually. We are building this forecast under the assumption that he is back, whether that comes through a new long-term contract or some other resolution.
Thompson is the player who really raises the defensive ceiling. He was named first-team All-Defense last season, finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting, led the NBA at 2.0 steals per game and ranked second at 4.3 deflections per game. We already thought of him as one of the best defenders in the league, and last season only reinforced that view. The obvious issue remains shooting. If he ever becomes even an average perimeter shooter, his value jumps another level because the defense is already elite.
Collins is the slightly more speculative part of the main-five projection. Detroit added him on a three-year, $51 million deal, and he is coming off a season in which he averaged 13.6 points while shooting 55.2% from the field and 40.6% from three. We think there is a good chance he ends up among Detroit's five highest-minute players, but this is not a lock. If it were our decision, we would probably lean toward Paul Reed instead.
That brings us to the projected second-five of Daniss Jenkins, Isaiah Joe, Ron Holland II, Kevin Huerter and Paul Reed. Defensively, we love this group too. Holland already brings serious defensive ability, Reed is one of the most underrated two-way bigs in the league in our view, and Jenkins competes. Joe and Huerter are not carrying the defense, but there is enough around them that this unit should still hold up very well.
Reed is the player we would probably play more than Detroit actually will. B-Ball Paul remains criminally underrated. He is efficient, he rebounds, he defends and he does not need the ball to have an impact. If we were building the rotation ourselves, Reed would have a real chance to finish in the main-five instead of Collins. But we are not forecasting the rotation we would choose; we are forecasting the minutes we think the Pistons will actually hand out.
Joe is a really smart addition because he gives Detroit another proven shooter after coming over from Oklahoma City for two future second-round picks. He shot better than 40% from three last season, and we could absolutely see a scenario where he ultimately finishes in the main-five in total minutes, with Duncan Robinson sliding into the second-five instead. At that point, the distinction is mostly semantic because both players give Detroit the same thing this roster needs badly around Cade and Ausar: shooting.
Holland remains one of the more interesting young players on the team. The defense is already there. If the offensive efficiency takes even a modest step forward, he becomes much easier to play in bigger roles. We think he has the potential to become a very good NBA player if that side of the game develops.
The departure of Isaiah Stewart changes the personality of the frontcourt. Stewart brought toughness, physicality and an edge that Detroit clearly valued, but he was never one of the team's more efficient players. Detroit moved him to Memphis on draft night, and from an efficiency standpoint we can make an argument that this may ultimately help the Pistons even if they miss some of what Beef Stew brought emotionally.
Beyond our projected main ten, Javonte Green could absolutely force his way into the rotation. He has done that repeatedly throughout his career. Taurean Prince is also on the roster, although we have never been especially high on his efficiency. Coaches tend to trust veterans, though, so it would not shock us if he ends up playing more than we would choose.
That is always part of the exercise. Sometimes coaches play the veteran because he is the veteran, and sometimes that ends up making the team worse.
Detroit's numbers from last season support the basic premise of this ranking. The Pistons went 60-22 with a 117.3 offensive rating and 108.9 defensive rating, good for a plus 8.4 net rating. They did that while playing at a 99.88 pace, which placed them around the lower-middle portion of the league rather than anywhere near the fastest teams. Once again, winning did not require Detroit to turn every possession into a track meet.
What we like most is that the identity should remain intact. Cunningham runs the offense. Duren gives them efficient interior production. Thompson is one of the league's premier defenders. Collins adds another scoring threat and size. Joe provides shooting. Holland and Reed give them more defense off the bench. There is enough depth and physicality here to remain very difficult to play against.
We are projecting some regression from 60 wins simply because repeating 60 is hard. We also want to see the Duren contract situation resolved, and Collins' role remains a little speculative. But nothing about this roster suggests last season was some accident. The defense was real, and the underlying numbers were elite.
Vegas has Detroit at 49.5 wins.
We have the Pistons at 53.
That puts Detroit at No. 4 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
