The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#3 — Toronto Raptors
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 53-29
Vegas Over/Under: 45.5 winsYes, we have the Toronto Raptors at No. 3.
That will probably surprise some people, especially with Vegas sitting all the way down at 45.5 wins, but there is a pretty straightforward reason we are this bullish. Toronto already won 46 games last season, finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and took Cleveland to seven games in the first round. Now the Raptors are positioned to replace Brandon Ingram with Kawhi Leonard in a main-five that we already thought was very good. Toronto agreed to acquire Leonard for Ingram, Gradey Dick and a package of future draft capital; the deal was held up by the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers, but that investigation concluded on September 2, and Leonard is expected to be available for Toronto once the transaction is finalized.
Our projected main-five is Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Leonard, Scottie Barnes (photo below) and Jakob Poeltl. From an offensive-efficiency standpoint, we have that group ranked fifth in the NBA. Defensively, we have it sixth. When your main-five is that good at both ends, you already have the foundation of a very good basketball team.
The biggest variable, naturally, is Leonard’s availability. He played 65 games last season for the Clippers and averaged 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. That is a lot more availability than we have become accustomed to seeing from him in some recent seasons, but history tells us we cannot simply assume 75 or 80 games. Our main-five projection is based on Kawhi playing enough total minutes to finish among Toronto’s top five. If he does, we think this team has a chance to be excellent.
The pairing of Leonard and Barnes is the main reason we love the ceiling. Scottie Barnes has become one of the best all-around forwards in basketball, and now Toronto can place Leonard next to him rather than asking Barnes to carry so much of the two-way burden himself. Both can defend multiple positions, both can create offense, and both can make plays without dominating every possession. That combination gives Darko Rajakovic a lot of options on both ends.
Barrett is another player we think gets overlooked. Maybe that is because he entered the league with such enormous expectations that anything short of superstardom felt disappointing, but that can distort how good he actually is. Barrett remains a big, versatile wing who can legitimately play the two, handle the ball, attack the basket and score efficiently enough to matter on a good team. He averaged 19.3 points last season while shooting 49.1% from the field, and there is real value in having that kind of production as the third or fourth offensive option. Quickley is solid, and Poeltl gives Toronto dependable size and efficiency in the middle.
That brings us to the second-five, where the profile changes a little. Our projected group is Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamison Battle, rookie Allen Graves and second-year forward Collin Murray-Boyles. The offensive efficiency of that group is not nearly as impressive as the main-five, but defensively we have it among the top three second-fives in the NBA.
We are very high on Graves and Murray-Boyles. Graves was the No. 19 pick after an excellent freshman season at Santa Clara, and at 6-foot-8 with strength, rebounding and defensive versatility, he looks like the kind of forward who can help without needing a lot of touches. Murray-Boyles already established himself last season as one of Toronto’s long-term building blocks. He gives them another physical, switchable defender with the strength to handle bigger forwards and enough feel to contribute offensively.
Shead is a defensive pest, and we think Battle is a more useful defender than he gets credit for. Walter is still finding his way from an efficiency standpoint, but there is enough defensive ability across that group that Toronto should be able to survive second-unit stretches even when the offense is not humming.
There is also a decent amount of competition just beyond our projected main ten. Kyle Anderson could very easily end up among Toronto’s ten highest-minute players. His game has never depended on athleticism, and his passing, size and defensive intelligence make him useful in a lot of different lineup combinations.
Trayce Jackson-Davis is still around after Toronto acquired him from Golden State at the February trade deadline for a 2026 second-round pick. He did not play much after arriving and barely appeared in the playoff series against Cleveland, but the Raptors exercised his $2.4 million team option for this season. He gives them another athletic frontcourt option if injuries or matchups create an opening.
Toronto also drafted Jaden Bradley with the 50th pick. Bradley is a 6-foot-3 guard who spent three seasons at Arizona after beginning his college career at Alabama, and he averaged 13.3 points and 4.4 assists as a senior while shooting 39.4% from three. He signed a two-way deal, so we would not project major minutes right away, but he is experienced enough to potentially help if the Raptors need another guard.
Nate Bittle is another developmental big worth watching, although he was not actually one of Toronto’s draft picks; the Raptors signed the 7-footer after the draft. He was on their Summer League roster, but with Poeltl, Jackson-Davis and other frontcourt options already ahead of him, we would be surprised if he played a role early. Andre Jackson Jr. is another tremendous athlete deeper on the roster, but he still has to prove he can produce efficiently enough offensively to demand regular minutes.
The statistical profile from last season is another major reason we trust Toronto. The Raptors finished tied for fifth in defensive rating at 112.1, and their offense was much closer to the middle of the pack at 115.0. That fits what we saw: defense was the thing that gave them a floor every night.
They also finished second in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.16-to-1. That matters to us. Good teams generally share the basketball, make good decisions and avoid wasting possessions, and the ball was moving in Toronto last season.
The pace number is also interesting. The Raptors played at the 21st-fastest pace in the league, yet won 46 games and reached the playoffs. At this point we feel pretty comfortable saying it: you do not have to play fast to win. Toronto shared the ball, defended and took care of possessions. That is a much stronger foundation than simply trying to increase the number of possessions in a game.
The biggest reason for the projected jump from 46 wins to 53 is still Kawhi. Toronto is not rebuilding the entire roster around him. Quickley, Barrett, Barnes and Poeltl were already together last season. The Raptors are essentially taking a 46-win team and replacing Ingram with one of the best two-way players of his generation, provided Leonard stays healthy enough to be a major part of the season.
That is why we are willing to go this far above Vegas.
We are not pretending there is no risk. Kawhi’s availability is always going to be part of the conversation, and the second-five offense is not overwhelming. But we see excellent two-way balance in the main-five, elite defensive potential in the second-five, good ball movement and a roster that already proved it could win before Leonard arrived.
Vegas has Toronto at 45.5 wins.
We have the Raptors at 53.
That puts Toronto at No. 3 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
