The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#2 — San Antonio Spurs
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 58-24
Vegas Over/Under: 57 winsThere are very few weaknesses to find with the San Antonio Spurs. Their projected main-five ranks in our top ten from an offensive-efficiency standpoint, and defensively we have that group either first or second in the entire NBA. The second-five may be even more impressive relative to the rest of the league. We have San Antonio's second-five offense among the top five, and its defense among the top five as well. When a team grades that well across all four categories, it becomes pretty easy to understand why we have the Spurs at No. 2.
Our projected main-five is De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Victor Wembanyama (photo below). Obviously, everything begins with Wembanyama. We believe he is the best center in basketball because of how dramatically he can influence a game at both ends of the floor. There are other centers who may be superior in certain offensive areas, but nobody at the position gives us the total package Wembanyama does as a scorer, defender, rim protector and matchup problem.
The defensive impact is what really separates him. San Antonio can play aggressively on the perimeter because Wembanyama is behind the play, and his presence changes shots even when he never records a block. Castle gives the Spurs another powerful perimeter defender, while Vassell and Champagnie provide size around them. Fox is not the reason this group grades so highly defensively, but he has the speed to pressure opposing guards when he is engaged. Put the pieces together and there are very few comfortable places for an opposing offense to attack.
Offensively, Fox is the player we would like to see take another step as the leader of this group. That is not meant as a criticism of his talent. We have seen games where Fox looks completely in command and plays with the decisiveness of an elite lead guard. We simply want to see that version more consistently. With Wembanyama, Castle and this much depth around him, he does not need to force the issue, but he does need to embrace the responsibility that comes with being the veteran point guard on a championship-level team.
Castle is still developing offensively, which is almost frightening when you consider how good San Antonio already is. Between Castle, Wembanyama and Dylan Harper, the Spurs have three foundational young players who could be winning games together for a very long time. That is one of the things that makes this roster feel different from an aging contender trying to squeeze out one final run. San Antonio is capable of contending right now while many of its most important players are still improving.
Our projected second-five is Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris and Luke Kornet. That is an unusually accomplished group to have sitting outside the five players we project to accumulate the most minutes. Harper gives San Antonio another high-level creator. Johnson can score. Barnes and Harris bring years of experience, while Kornet gives them a dependable big behind Wembanyama.
Harris is a particularly nice addition. He comes over from Detroit after a long, productive NBA career, and there is very little an opponent can show him that he has not already seen. He does not need to arrive in San Antonio and be a star. He can make shots, defend his position, understand where to be and provide an experienced presence to a group whose best players are still extremely young.
Harper may eventually make the distinction between main-five and second-five feel almost silly. He is too talented not to play, and there will undoubtedly be lineups where he shares the floor with Fox and Castle. But remember that our groups are based on projected total minutes over 82 games, not simply who starts. San Antonio has enough good players that somebody very talented is inevitably going to fall outside the main-five.
The frontcourt depth gets even more interesting beyond our projected top ten. Carter Bryant enters his second season and has a realistic chance to force his way into the rotation. The Spurs also added rookies Jayden Quaintance and Tarris Reed Jr., giving them more size behind Wembanyama and Kornet.
We also really like Maliq Brown. We thought he may have been the best defender in college basketball last season, and his instincts at that end fit perfectly with what San Antonio is building. The problem is offense. His efficiency is not there yet, and on a team this good it may be difficult for a rookie with offensive limitations to earn consistent minutes. Still, adding another high-level defensive prospect to a roster already loaded with defenders is hardly a bad problem to have.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie is another rookie we like. He would probably have a much easier path to immediate minutes on a rebuilding team, but San Antonio is not developing players at the expense of winning anymore. The Spurs are trying to win the NBA championship right now, and rookies are going to have to prove they can help before the coaching staff hands them significant responsibility.
That depth is part of why we are so bullish. If somebody gets hurt, San Antonio has real NBA players behind him. If a young player develops faster than expected, the Spurs have even more options. If an opponent goes small, they can adjust. If an opponent wants to play big, they certainly have the personnel for that too. There are multiple ball-handlers, multiple defenders, frontcourt depth and enough offensive creation spread throughout the roster that it is difficult to find a lineup construction that leaves them particularly vulnerable.
And that brings us back to Wembanyama.
Everything changes when you have a player who can affect both ends at his level. He gives San Antonio an enormous margin for error defensively while also creating matchup problems that very few teams are equipped to solve.
The Spurs were already one of the best teams in basketball last season, and now much of the young core gets another year of experience while Harris adds another dependable veteran to the mix. More importantly, we see San Antonio and the team we have ranked No. 1 as being in a different tier from the rest of the Western Conference. Denver is excellent. Minnesota is excellent. The Lakers are dangerous. But when we look at the complete roster on both ends of the floor, we believe these top two teams have separated themselves.
Ultimately, we expect one of them to win the NBA championship.
Vegas has San Antonio at 57 wins.
We have the Spurs at 58.
That puts San Antonio at No. 2 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
