The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#16 — Atlanta Hawks
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 41-41
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5 winsThe Atlanta Hawks are one of the more interesting teams in this part of our rankings because the strength of the roster is now something we have not associated with Atlanta for a long time: defense.
Our projected main-five of C.J. McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson (photo below) and Onyeka Okongwu grades as one of the better defensive main-fives in the league. McCollum is obviously not driving that ranking, but Alexander-Walker and Daniels give Atlanta two excellent perimeter defenders, Johnson has the size and versatility to handle multiple assignments, and Okongwu gives them mobility and rim protection in the middle. Put those four around McCollum and the Hawks have enough defensive talent to cover a lot of ground.
That is a significant change in identity. Atlanta spent years trying to construct workable defenses around Trae Young. Now the Hawks can put multiple long, disruptive defenders on the floor at the same time without needing to hide their point guard on every possession. Daniels, in particular, changes games with his activity and ability to create turnovers, while Alexander-Walker gives them another defender who can take difficult perimeter assignments.
The offensive question is not really with that group. The concern is what happens when the bench starts checking in.
Our current projected second-five is Kingston Flemings, Ryan Nembhard, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort and Corey Kispert. That is a very small group, and from an efficiency standpoint we do not love it.
We remain extremely high on Flemings. Atlanta selected him eighth overall after a tremendous freshman season at Houston in which he averaged 16.1 points, 5.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals while shooting 48% from the field, 39% from three and 85% from the line. He earned All-America honors and was a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award. We loved him before the draft and still believe he has a chance to become an excellent NBA point guard.
But he is also 19 years old.
There is a difference between believing a rookie has a great future and expecting him to efficiently run an NBA second unit from Day One. Flemings will have nights where the talent is obvious and other nights where he looks exactly like what he is: a teenager learning the hardest position in basketball.
Nembhard gives Atlanta another point guard option after coming over from Dallas in the three-team trade that also brought Dort to the Hawks. Nembhard had a solid rookie season with the Mavericks, averaging 6.6 points and 5.3 assists in 60 games, and he knows how to organize an offense. The concern is size. At 5-foot-11, he is giving up a physical advantage almost every night, and that becomes more problematic when Atlanta's projected second-five is already undersized.
Dort brings the exact opposite problem. He has been an All-Defensive level perimeter player and gives Atlanta yet another player capable of making life miserable for opposing guards and wings. Offensively, however, his inefficiency can become a real issue. If you are playing Dort alongside a rookie point guard and another very small guard in Nembhard, you need the other pieces around them to produce efficiently.
Wiggins and Kispert are useful wings. Wiggins has been a complementary player throughout his time in Oklahoma City, while Kispert provides shooting and movement without needing the ball. Neither is somebody we view as a major offensive creator, though, which is why this projected second-five leaves us wanting more.
We also want to emphasize that this particular second-five projection could easily be wrong.
Atlanta has frontcourt options. Jock Landale is a proven NBA center and could very easily end up among the ten Hawks who play the most minutes. Asa Newell is another legitimate candidate for a larger role, while Mouhamed Gueye has enough size and athleticism to work his way into the mix. Rookie Henri Veesaar gives Atlanta another 7-footer to develop after the Hawks acquired his draft rights on draft night.
If Landale ends up in the second-five, our evaluation of that group changes. He would give Atlanta legitimate size, rebounding and efficient interior offense, and he would create a much more conventional lineup structure. Right now we are projecting the players we think ultimately accumulate the most minutes, but the rotation is far from settled.
Buddy Hield is another veteran who will get opportunities, even if we currently see him more as a deep-rotation player than a main-ten fixture. The shooting still has value, particularly on nights when Atlanta's offense bogs down.
We are also interested in Devin Carter, who arrives from Sacramento. Carter is already an excellent defender and plays with the kind of physicality that fits the Hawks' new identity perfectly. The issue is shooting. If he ever becomes a dependable perimeter shooter, he has enough other NBA skills to become a valuable rotation player. Whether that happens in Atlanta or somewhere else remains to be seen, but the defensive foundation is absolutely there.
Atlanta finished 46-36 last season and won the Southeast Division before losing in the first round. There is enough talent here to remain firmly in the playoff conversation, and we actually like the makeup of the main-five quite a bit. The Hawks can defend, they have size and versatility across several positions, and Johnson continues to develop into a legitimate centerpiece.
Any hesitation comes from the bench. If Landale takes one of those second-five spots and stabilizes the frontcourt, Atlanta could easily exceed our projection. But as we have the rotation constructed today, the second group does not have enough offensive efficiency for us to get all the way to the Vegas number.
Vegas has Atlanta at 43.5 wins.
We have the Hawks at 41.
That puts Atlanta at No. 16 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
