The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#15 — Golden State Warriors
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 43-39
Vegas Over/Under: 40.5 winsThere is an obvious place to begin with the Golden State Warriors, and his name is still Stephen Curry (photo below). As long as Curry remains capable of bending defenses the way he does, Golden State has a chance to beat projections. But when we look beyond Curry, the part of this roster that actually interests us most is the offensive potential of the players we project to finish sixth through tenth in total minutes.
As always in these rankings, our main-five is not necessarily our projected starting lineup. It represents the five players we believe will finish the 82-game season having played the most total minutes. The second-five is simply players six through ten in that same minutes projection.
With that distinction in mind, our projected main-five is Brandin Podziemski, Curry, De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis. That does not mean we believe Melton will start ahead of Jimmy Butler when Butler is healthy. Quite the opposite. Butler is obviously a starter and one of Golden State's most important players. We simply expect his ACL recovery to cost him enough games that he may not finish among the Warriors' top five players in total minutes.
The same logic applies to Moses Moody.
Our projected second-five in total season minutes is Moody, Jimmy Butler III, Gui Santos, rookie Yaxel Lendeborg and Al Horford. Again, calling Butler part of the second-five should not be confused with calling him a second-unit player. If Butler is healthy, he goes directly into the starting lineup. His placement here is purely a reflection of how many games and minutes we expect him to miss while recovering from the torn ACL in his right knee.
Moody's situation is similar. He ruptured the patellar tendon in his left knee late last season, and we expect that injury to cost him enough time that he could finish outside Golden State's top five in total minutes even though he should have an important role once healthy.
From an efficiency standpoint, we are not wild about the projected main-five as a whole. Curry obviously changes everything offensively, and Porzingis gives Golden State a dimension it has lacked when healthy: a legitimate big who can stretch the floor while providing size around the basket. Green remains valuable in ways that do not always show up cleanly in an efficiency formula, but he is not a scorer. Podziemski is useful, but he is not an elite efficiency player. Porzingis also has to stay healthy.
Where Golden State becomes especially interesting to us is that players projected to finish sixth through tenth in minutes could provide considerably more offensive production than the typical second-five.
If Butler returns and resembles himself, he immediately becomes one of the team's primary offensive players regardless of where he ultimately ranks in total minutes. Moody was also having the best season of his career before getting hurt. Add Horford's shooting and passing, Santos' continued development and Lendeborg's all-around ability, and there is a lot to like about the depth of playable offensive options.
Lendeborg could change our projection entirely. We have been extremely high on him throughout the draft process and viewed him, along with Cameron Boozer, as one of the most plug-and-play ready players in the 2026 class. If he handles the transition as well as we expect, he could easily finish among Golden State's five highest-minute players. In that scenario, Melton may be the player who slides into the second-five.
That is why Golden State's rotation is difficult to forecast. There are several veteran players whose roles are obvious when healthy but whose season-long minute totals are much harder to predict.
Beyond our projected top ten, Gary Payton II is back and remains one of our favorite role players because of the chaos he can create defensively. Will Richard had a solid rookie season and gives Golden State another young perimeter player worth developing.
The Warriors also added Brandon Williams from Dallas. He gives them another legitimate guard option and could become especially valuable early in the season while Butler and Moody remain unavailable. Georges Niang is also in the mix and gives Golden State another veteran shooter.
And we really like the decision to bring Dalen Terry to camp on an Exhibit 10 contract. There is essentially no downside to taking that swing. Terry is still young, has excellent defensive size and versatility, and his three-point percentage has improved considerably over the last two seasons. We recently made the case that Sacramento should pursue him, so naturally we think Golden State did something smart by giving him an opportunity to compete for a roster spot.
The biggest concern with Golden State remains age and health. Curry, Green, Butler and Horford are all well into the veteran stage of their careers. Butler and Moody are recovering from major knee injuries. Porzingis has his own lengthy injury history. A roster that looks deep on paper can become thin quickly if several of those players are unavailable at the same time.
But we still see enough here to be more optimistic than Vegas. Curry remains one of the greatest offensive advantages in basketball. Porzingis gives the Warriors size without destroying their spacing. Lendeborg looks unusually ready for a rookie. And once Butler and Moody return, Golden State could have considerably more offensive talent available than our season-long main-five projection initially suggests.
Vegas has Golden State at 40.5 wins.
We have the Warriors at 43.
That puts Golden State at No. 15 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
