The Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast: 30 to 1
#29 — Sacramento Kings
Hoop Obsession Prediction: 21-61
Vegas Over/Under: 21.5 winsAugust 22, 2026. The biggest problem in Sacramento is not difficult to identify. We simply do not believe the Kings meet the necessary standards defensively.
Our projected main-five for Sacramento lands last in our NBA defensive rankings. Domantas Sabonis is rugged, physical and one of the league's premier rebounders, but he is not a rim protector. That becomes an especially difficult foundation when Zach LaVine carries a minus-1.6 DDiff and the projected starting point guard is a 19-year-old rookie whose biggest question entering the NBA is his defense.
There are two legitimate plus defenders in the projected starting group. De'Andre Hunter gives Sacramento length and versatility on the wing, while Keegan Murray has developed into a dependable defender capable of handling difficult assignments. But asking those two to cover for deficiencies at point guard, shooting guard and center is asking a lot.
The defensive picture changes considerably when Dylan Cardwell enters the game. Cardwell can protect the rim, move his feet and bring an entirely different level of defensive energy. We saw that in Summer League, and his presence gives Doug Christie an option when Sacramento desperately needs stops. The tradeoff is offense. Cardwell struggles to make shots much beyond five feet, is foul prone and is a poor free-throw shooter. There will be matchups where those limitations make it difficult to leave him on the floor for extended stretches.
The Kings do have decent depth by NBA standards. Malik Monk, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud and Cardwell should all see minutes. Rookies Emanuel Sharp and Alex Karaban arrive as mature college players who could earn rotation opportunities quickly, and we liked the addition of Jonathan Mogbo on a two-way contract. There are enough playable bodies here that Sacramento should not have to ask its starters to carry everything.
The most important development, however, is Darius Acuff Jr. (photo above).
Acuff gives Kings fans legitimate reason for optimism. The No. 7 pick was an offensive engine in his lone season at Arkansas, where he became SEC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year, a consensus first-team All-American and the Bob Cousy Award winner. He enters the NBA at just 19 years old.
We like Acuff. We also think expectations need to be realistic.
NBA history is filled with tremendously talented rookie point guards whose teams still lost a lot of games. Magic Johnson is the famous exception, and Ben Simmons had the benefit of entering a Philadelphia situation that was ready to win. More commonly, young lead guards endure a difficult first season while learning how to organize an NBA offense, defend experienced players and survive an 82-game schedule.
Rookie point guard Season Team record Magic Johnson 1979-80 Lakers 60-22 Ben Simmons 2017-18 76ers 52-30 Cade Cunningham 2021-22 Pistons 23-59 John Wall 2010-11 Wizards 23-59 Kyrie Irving 2011-12 Cavaliers 21-45 Allen Iverson 1996-97 76ers 22-60 Trae Young 2018-19 Hawks 29-53 Those records are not an indictment of any of those players. Iverson, Wall, Irving, Young and Cunningham all showed immediately that they belonged in the league. The point is that young point guards usually need time before their individual talent translates into team success. Magic's Lakers went 60-22 and won the championship, while Simmons' 76ers went 52-30, but the other examples above all finished well below .500.
Sacramento also gets Sabonis back after an injury-ruined season. He suffered a partial tear of the meniscus in his left knee in November, eventually underwent surgery in February and appeared in only 19 games. Sabonis reportedly enters this season feeling as though he has something to prove, and a healthy version of him should make an enormous difference for a team that won only 22 games last season.
LaVine has motivation of his own. He enters the final season of his contract, which gives him every reason to present the healthiest and most productive version of himself. With DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook no longer occupying such a large offensive role, Murray could also see an opportunity for increased usage.
Raynaud is another player worth watching. At Stanford in 2024-25, he made 67 three-point shots in 35 games. As an NBA rookie, he made only 24 threes in 74 games while shooting 32.4% from beyond the arc. If Raynaud can rediscover the perimeter shooting volume he showed in college, it changes the way Sacramento can use him. A 7-footer who can legitimately space the floor has a chance to play effective minutes at the four alongside Sabonis or another center instead of being restricted almost entirely to backup-center minutes.
We are less convinced by the continued discussion about finding a veteran backup point guard specifically to mentor Acuff. Sacramento reportedly has considered veteran guards such as Victor Oladipo, Cameron Payne and Elfrid Payton for that type of role.
We think the mentorship issue can become overthought. NBA teams employ enormous coaching and player-development staffs. Sacramento already has former NBA point guard Leandro Barbosa on the coaching staff, and Doug Christie played 15 seasons in the league. Acuff should have no shortage of experienced people available to teach him how to prepare, study opponents and handle life in the NBA.
For a team in Sacramento's position, we would rather use the back end of the roster to mine for players in their early-to-mid 20s who may have been overlooked or simply landed in the wrong situation. Find players who have shown an NBA-level skill and give them an opportunity to grow with Acuff, Murray, Clifford, Raynaud and the rest of the younger core. We are not convinced that using roster spots on players looking for their third or fourth opportunity, particularly players who have been out of the NBA for multiple seasons, is the best use of those opportunities.
Sacramento finished 22-60 last season with the NBA's 28th-ranked defensive rating. The Kings allowed 121.5 points per 100 possessions and were outscored by 10 points per game.
There are reasons to watch this team. Acuff could be a major piece of the future. Murray may have another level offensively. Sabonis should be healthier. The bench has some legitimate NBA depth.
But until we see a believable path to competent defense from the main-five, it is difficult for us to project meaningful improvement.
Vegas has Sacramento at 21.5 wins.
We have the Kings at 21.
That puts Sacramento at No. 29 in the Hoop Obsession NBA Forecast.
#28 (coming soon)
