Keaton Wagler is a right-handed point guard that had a breakout freshman season while helping guide Illinois to the Final Four. Wagler offers accurate shooting, uncommon poise, and an ability to draw fouls. He averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while shooting 39.7% from three-point range and 79.6% from the free throw line. He was named First Team All-Big Ten. At 6'5" with a 6'6.25" wingspan and a 188-pound frame, Wagler fits more cleanly into the NBA point guard size pool. Our study of NBA playoff starters showed the average point guard at roughly a 6'7" wingspan and 200 pounds. Wagler would be small as a shooting guard, where the average bumps up to a 6'9" wingspan and 206 pounds. The positional distinction matters because Wagler is really skilled, but not particularly quick or fast. Wagler uses his left hand well and plays with impressive control for a 19-year-old. His 2.37-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio reflects that poise and decision-making. He scored 46 points at Purdue this season, setting a record for an Illinois freshman in a single game. Wagler also finished fourth in Big Ten box score plus/minus. While he jumped a 36" max vertical at the NBA Draft Combine, he did not record a dunk all season at Illinois, which adds some context to his functional athleticism. Defensively, the numbers were poor. Wagler’s DEFRTG was 3.4 points worse than the Illinois team DEFRTG. He will need to get stronger, and prove he can hold up against NBA speed. Still, with his shooting, feel, foul-drawing, and playmaking instincts, we view Wagler as a potential mid-tier starting point guard in the NBA.
